Virginia Special Harbinger - Tom LoBianco Reports, Ep. 10
The race for a Virginia seat looks to narrow Republican hold on House, and perhaps a harbinger of November
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Welcome to the 10th episode of Tom LoBianco Reports, a new show from 24sight News and our friends at Political Voices Network. Monday through Friday, tune in here on Substack at Noon ET and then catch the replay at 8p ET at Political Voices Network.
Each weekday, I’ll bring you along as I report the story. Along with my friend and colleague Ian B. Walters, we’ll dive down the late-night, screen-glazed rabbit hole of the modern interwebs, acting as your personal guide to what’s real and what’s complete bullshit.(For our live viewers at noon, reply to this email or send in your comments in the live chat and we’ll get to them at the end of the show.)
As we ease into the week, I want to note that I now run into Labubus everywhere. That Friday show was a curse! After never seen one in the wild, I can’t get away from them. Which, of course, means my kid sees them, too. So I’m fundraising now to cover my mortgage and save for one authentic Labubu. If I look a little yellow in a few weeks, it means I sold my liver.
*** Special thanks to 24sight News intern
for compiling the research for today’s show! ***On today’s show:
The Top: November Forecast?
Special elections with little chance of a switch in party rarely get much attention, but the race for Virginia’s 11th House District is catching eyes this week.
All expectations are that the Northern Virginia once held by longtime moderate Republican Tom Davis, and then for almost two decades by former Rep. Gerry Connolly, until he passed away this spring, will stay in Democratic hands.
But as the AP’s Robert Yoon notes in his write-up, margins in the House are narrow indeed and even filling one Democratic vacancy could shift the balance of power — without outright handing control to the Democrats themselves.
I say *wraps* voting Tuesday because Virginians have been voting for weeks now in the special election, this despite a push by the White House to eliminate mail-in and early voting.
Hot Quote
Democrat James Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff and a local official in NoVa (Northern Va. for all you non-DC folks) is running against Stewart Whitson, the head of a conservative think tank.
Whitson is running a national Republican playbook calling for a crackdown on crime and a focus on education in Congress. Walkinshaw is running on using Congress as a check on the White House, according to DC’s WJLA.
Deep Background:
Republicans have little hope of winning the seat. But races aren’t always viewed for wins and losses.
Here’s what I’m watching for:
Who turns out? How many?
What are the numbers of in-person versus early voting?
These are the tea leaves that may help us divine what to expect in two months, when Virginia’s state races — themselves often viewed as an early indicator of national sentiment — give us the first big sense of what’s coming in the Midterm elections, or not.
What’s Next
We’ve got a big week in the nation’s capital this week, tune in tomorrow (Tuesday) as we look at whether Democrats will push to shut down the federal government in the current fight. We’ve got
on the show tomorrow to help understand what to expect.Catch up
Did you miss Friday’s show? Watch it here! Labubus are Everywhere! So, catch the ritual here, Ian and I raised a dark lord. A cuddly, over-priced, East Asian, dark lord.
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