Trump’s doomsday scenario: a Haley upset with a DeSantis exit after Iowa

Iowa will decide whether the Republican race stretches into February or wraps up Monday night

Behind the scenes, some of Donald Trump’s advisers have been warning the former president and de facto Republican nominee to guard against a doomsday scenario, one in which the Republican race turns into a surprise two-person contest between himself and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. 

The Trump doomsday hypothetical works like this: Haley beats Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa for second place, DeSantis drops out hoping to save face for a possible future run, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie endorses Haley ahead of the New Hampshire primary giving her a surge and she completes an upset of Trump in New Hampshire … thus making it a race.

“If that were to happen, that means this whole fight for the nomination goes through South Carolina,” one Trump adviser told 24sight Thursday. “While Donald Trump has the overwhelming majority of endorsements in that state, it doesn’t mean she can’t catch him there. Look at how much movement she has had in just 30 days in New Hampshire.” 

You can practically here the pinball bouncing in this Rube Goldberg-esque handwringing. (And more than a few current and former Trump advisers have dismissed this talk as campaign fantasy football at a time when the some very real football is under way.)

But with the Iowa caucuses just four days away, some big signs have hit that this could end up becoming a two-person race, perhaps stretching the Republican primary well past New Hampshire’s contest January 23. Christie dropped out of the race Wednesday. Haley has climbed into a battle for second place in Iowa with DeSantis, albeit with scant polling and big questions of whether the Koch brothers volunteer machine will activate for her.

And there are also some telltale signs of worry, namely Trump himself training his fire on Haley after having spent an entire year savaging DeSantis. (Veterans of 2016 know all about how and when Trump decides to change targets.) Trump repurposed his routine tactic of claiming opponents are ineligible to serve because they’re not officially American, spreading an article falsely claiming Haley is ineligible. 

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Yet Trump continues to dominate. 

As one Trump adviser noted Thursday, if Christie was going to play four-dimensional chess with a properly timed endorsement to boost Haley - he undid all of that with one hot mic moment. “She’s going to get smoked,” Christie said Wednesday night before suspending his bid. 

“One of the things being discussed (inside the campaign) and has been suspected for quite some time is that Christie rolls over and goes to Haley,” the Trump adviser told 24sight. “He’s transactional. But he killed himself in this hot mic moment.” 

The answers will come from Iowa Monday, the night of the first GOP contest. If DeSantis comes in third, pressure mounts on him to drop thus raising the stakes for Trump in New Hampshire. But if he can come in second, giving him a good reason to stay in the race, that likely ends the race for everyone not named Trump.