The 24 Seven: The Settling
The picture becomes clearer with time
🎙️🎙️ Friends, tune in to the Julie Mason Show on SiriusXM Channel 124 today at 530p ET. I’ll be on with Julie Mason discussing just what the heck is going on in this country. And White House egg nog. (These two things may be related.)
And make sure to tune in to the 24sight livestream today at 4p ET, I’ll have guest expert
on to take your questions and talk shop. If you don’t have the Substack app already, you can download it here.If you don’t already, make sure to follow me on Bluesky — which has the feel and usability of old Twitter, before the pay-to-play bot scams, and has been attracting numerous veteran reporters and professionals. I’m on Bluesky at @24sight.news.
1. The Full Picture
We still don’t know the final results of the 2024 election, in a literal sense. Check out that screenshot of the New York Times results — an estimated 98.8 percent counted, which leaves 1.2 percent yet to be seen.
That doesn’t mean the big results will change, it doesn’t mean that the sitting president should get on the phone and start pressuring secretaries of state to fabricate polling results or enlist fake electors, nor does it look like there will be a second insurrection at the Capitol.
It just means we haven’t seen all the nuances yet. The votes were cast before and on election day 16 days ago, and we’re still discovering the shape of the results. Politics reporter
had a good piece recently on some of the post-mortem findings among Democrats related to this.This column from Anita Chabria today in the Los Angeles Times is also very good, offering details bursting some of the instant-takes from immediately after the election. (Keep this all in mind as we watch how lawmakers in particular react to Trump’s extreme carrot-and-stick lobbying via social media and country club invites.)
2. Lame Duck Calculations
Trump’s “shock and awe” Cabinet rollout could run up against some cold political calculations in the Senate, veteran reporter Jonathan Martin writes today in Politico Magazine. Recommend this read for a dose of grounding on what’s to come in the next few weeks and months.
3. “This isn’t ‘Nam”
There are rules.
(With apologies to the Coen brothers and John Goodman’s “Walter Sobchak”)
As a number of folks around Washington have pointed out recently, the WWE bluster from a range of top Trump advisers — including menacing threats from the incoming president himself — face pretty clear boundaries of reality.
Imprison people you don’t like, just because? Due process is ensconced in the Fourth Amendment and, as Trump himself demonstrated, deep pockets and limitless court motions can delay action almost indefinitely.
Serve a third term? That would require amending the Constitution, an arduous process to say the least.
I’ll be talking about this and more with Gabe on the livestream today at 4p ET.
4. But, but, but
As Constitution expert and University of Baltimore law professor
noted on the most recent episode of The Ground Game Podcast, we are very much in new territory in this country after the Supreme Court decided in Trump v. U.S. that presidents are immune from prosecution for any action deemed a part of their official duties. This, plus the potential that Trump could pre-emptively pardon any official he orders to break the law, opens the door for authoritarian moves.
Equally, count on all norms and traditions not explicitly written in law to be broken.
A good number of voters in the country want this. A larger number seem not to know this is happening because of the hyper-siloed and fractured media environment.
An important nugget from this Washington Post write-up on the transition, Trump’s team is refusing to use secured lines and State Department staff in calls with heads of state and adversaries. And Bloomberg reported that Trump may skirt FBI vetting of imperiled nominees like former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who, according to testimony, had sex with an under-aged high school girl at a drug-filled party in 2017. (Gaetz has repeatedly denied the charges.)
5. Open-source vetting
The public and the press don’t have all the tools of one of the three branches of government in terms of vetting the incoming members of the White House, but sleuthing keeps going apace.
The testimony of Gaetz’s alleged sex with a high school girl in 2017 have trickled out steadily since he was picked by Trump to run the Justice Department. And ABC News reported Tuesday that Gaetz had made more than $10,000 in payments to two of the women who testified about him.
The police report detailing the allegations against Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, was published by Mediaite.
Of note have been the more traditional Cabinet picks, like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state, who haven’t drawn as many headlines.
Also, this scoop from Axios is a good look at the hurdles Trump would face in trying to skirt constitutional advice-and-consent via recess appointments.
6. Dusting off
What do you do after getting canned — be it by the voters or big promises from Elon Musk? Author Beth Solomon is out with a new book, “From Fired to Fabulous: How to Turn Professional Fiascos into your launchpad to Success.”
I’ll be interviewing Beth tomorrow then emailing out our talk later in the day. This is a timely release coming on the heels of the election.
7. 24sight News is growing
24sight News will be a year old in January!
Thank you all for your support and faith.
As I continue shifting to covering the newly revealed political landscape (including the second Trump administration, the coming battles in Congress and statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey next year) I’m growing 24sight’s offerings and scope of coverage.
It’s been a wild start, from rugged campaign blog at the start of the year, to nascent media property now. Look for more new voices here, like 24sight’s first columnist,
!!I’ve had a couple of folks reach out seeking writing and professional advice, so I’ve decided to take a page from the
and playbooks and start offering one-on-one 30-minute Zoom calls with paying subscribers. Ask me (almost) anything.If you’re already a paying subscriber, just drop me a note at tom@24sight.news and we’ll set up our call. For new paying supporters, after you upgrade to a paid subscription, $5/month or $50/year, drop me a note at tom@24sight.news.
Additionally, as we grow the 24sight Family here, if you’d like to help out volunteering your services — can be as simple as just spreading the word — hit me up. Same email - tom@24sight.news.