The 24 Seven: Indicators
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House
1. Tune in today
Hey friends, I’ve got a pair of election eve specials for you today.
If you don’t already have the Substack App, make sure to download it and then tune in at 3p ET for a special livestream with myself,
and previewing what to expect tomorrow.
Then at 9p ET tonight,
, my co-host on The Ground Game Pod will be doing a special livestream with even hotter takes. (Six hours will have passed, so we’re sure to know even more at that point.)If you haven’t already, go subscribe at our YouTube page here. Bring your questions and a beverage of choice.
2. Watching for
I’ll be on the ground in PA tomorrow to start Election Day.
There’s many ways this race could play out, but the vast majority of scenarios center on winning Pennsylvania.
If you haven’t yet, give NBC News’s early voting tool a spin. It’s easy to use and gives a good sense of where things stand heading into tomorrow.
I screenshotted the PA gender gap above on purpose.
If you look at the roughly 6.8M or so votes cast in total in PA in 2020, the total early vote so far, 1.78M returned as of this afternoon, is not massive. And the gender gap, while not a clear indicator of a partisan lead, in the early vote is not massive either — 56 - 43%, women - men.
If total turnout remains close to 2020 numbers, this would give Trump more room to breathe trying to get younger men (including many first-time voters) to the polls there tomorrow.
But if total turnout dips from 2020 as expected, and gender disparities between the parties continue, this would seem to give Harris more of an edge heading into day-of voting.
3. Pivotal moment
I’ve removed the paywall from my latest election memo, posted yesterday (paying supporters get first look at the memos, as a thanks for your support.)
Read it here:
If women voters prove the deciding factor in the race, this key negotiation Trump made with anti-abortion, pro-life leaders in the summer of 2016 will prove pivotal for having paved the way to Trump’s Supreme Court nominees ending federal abortion protections.
And if young, working class men turn out en masse, enough to put Trump over the top, this could equally prove pivotal for having started the massive political realignment of the U.S. over the past decade.
See some of my previous memos here:
4. Voter contacts
Hard to tell in the era of media consumption by cellphone, but if previous cycles offer a guide, the Harris campaign’s swarming of voters with direct contact could prove pivotal. This from veteran strategist Liz Mair is very interesting.
5, 6, 7. Keeping it tight
That’s all for now, friends.
We’ve got a big day tomorrow.
Thanks for reading, almost to the finish line,
Tom
I’m looking forward to reports from the ground in PA.