Who has the edge? Trump or Harris

Based on my read, it's Kamala Harris. Here's why

The big question I get from friends is “What's my sense?” Well it looks tight, but it seems like Vice President Harris has the edge in this.

Why? Well, based on my observations and discussions with sharp sources:

Campaign behavior:

- The campaign of former president Donald Trump says they're winning and have momentum (Trump himself seems overwrought with stress, to say the least.)

- Harris is arguing they’re underdogs and needs everyone to show up

- Trump is blanketing must-win PA

- Harris surrogates Barack Obama and Bill Clinton pushing into reach-states for Harris

- Overseas betting markets tied to aggressive currency market (pro-Trump) juking numbers to present false image

Money:

- Harris has more and is spending it profligately

- Trump exhausted his small-dollar pool a long time ago, and has been flooded with legal bills (paid for by his campaign operation, not his personal fortune)

Organization:

- Trump subcontracted field operations to Charlie Kirk organization and Elon Musk/former Ron DeSantis staff operation (though he still has RNC infrastructure and a disciplined campaign team.)

- Harris has more cohesive Biden structure and energized Dems and a party culture of early and mail-in voting (polling, "surprises" affect shrinking pool of voters)

Novelty:

- Trump won a large number of voters in '16 who were looking for something new. Now he's very well-defined, with a "hard ceiling"

- Harris is still "new" in the broader populace, despite having been VP for the past four years with room to grow and missteps by Trump finding a singular line of attack (HRC was very well-defined in conservative media walking into 2016).

Gender:

- Harris is targeting more high-propensity type voters, college-educated, women

- Trump is pushing for lower-turnout voters, lower education, men

Catch me tomorrow afternoon on Sirius XM Channel 124 at 4:30p ET on The Julie Mason Show! I’ll be talking about the state of the race and more!

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Now that it’s just me here (my colleague, friend and co-founder Warren Rojas went to go get a job eating free food on the Washington Post’s dime a little while ago, meanwhile I’m still running into politicians at the fast food drivethrough) I’ve dropped subscriptions back to $5/month or $50/year. That’s one overwrought Starbucks drink a month, or a bag of Starbucks on sale at your nearest grocer (NY, SF not included).