The 24 Seven: Change Agents
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House from 24sight News
1. Incumbent fight
So, who’s the “incumbent” in this race?
Vice President Kamala Harris is the sitting second-in-command in the White House. But former president Donald Trump is the former president and has been treated as such (one of his central arguments for not debating in the Republican primaries was that as the former president, he was entitled to the Republican Party’s nomination again.)
The framing of who is the “power” at the moment could swing this very tight race.
This helps explain why Harris and her campaign have locked into a “not going back” chant as a hallmark of their still-nascent rallies.
It also highlights the struggles of Trump, who has been largely absent from the campaign trail this month, and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, to find a singular line of attack against Harris. (Among other things, Trump has struggled to find an insult name for Harris, as he’s previously used to great effect against previous opponents.)
Speaking at a panel at the Brookings Institution earlier Monday, veteran political analyst and publisher of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, said that partisan feelings and alliances have become so “calcified” in modern times that massive swings of support are no longer possible.
Establishing who is the “incumbent” in the campaign narrative is one of the few things which will help shift voter sentiments at the margins enough to matter.
2. Heading to Chicago
Look for me at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next week — (big thanks to everyone who pitched in to help get me there!)
It’s another big convention and another dance with history in this wildest of presidential races. The Democratic Party is set to nominate their first Black woman (and Indian-American) for president, pro-Palestinian protests are expected and the re-energized Democrats will pack the streets around the United Center downtown.
All indications are this will be a very, very different affair than the Republican convention last month in Milwaukee — not just in terms of policy and goals but in sheer performance and tone. Trump’s monster-truck-style final night with Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan seems likely to stand alone.
Early details about the lineup are starting to trickle out with the Democratic convention sounding more like a “traditional” party affair — NBC reports that the party’s elders Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, are set to take the stage (in contrast with the Republican Party’s former leaders not named Trump who avoided Milwaukee.)
President Joe Biden is set to speak Monday.
If you’ve got recommendations on where I should stop in for a bite (all the neon green relish) or will be up there and would like to connect, drop me an email: tom@24sight.news.
3. The Ukrainian Invasion
Yes, you saw that right — Ukraine invading … Russia.
Ukraine now controls 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk Region, The Associated Press reports. The stunning success of the Ukrainian forces underlies what is still a grueling war, now halfway through it’s third year.
For continuing coverage from the ground, check out Ukraine War correspondent Tim Mak and his team
and make sure to listen to Tim’s interview on the 24sight Pod:
4. Stumping
Having watched the first of the Harris/Walz rallies last week, a clear stump speech has emerged from both Harris and Walz, with each touting quickly their own biographies, pushing for long-running Democratic policy priorities and hitting Trump (and to a lesser degree) Vance.
Stumps have traditionally been staid affairs, of course this past decade has redefined many norms in American politics. Despite his wild proclamations, attacks and false claims, even Trump has developed something of a stump speech at his rallies — repeatedly hammering on topics like Hannibal Lecter and shark attacks versus electrocution.
Presidential campaigns are about communicating, and communicating is about repeating messaging until it sticks.
The same speech (with a few regional tweaks here and there) has been enough so far for Harris and Walz to fire up their fans in their initial stops. I’ll be watching to see how and if that changes as the two hit this next stretch of the race, heading into and then out of Chicago.
5. Vibing
There may not be a single point in this race where things settle to a point where polling can accurately gauge the impact of the past two months — from the presidential debate, an assassination attempt, and Biden dropping out to the emergence of Harris and Walz effectively starting a second race for the White House — but the pros still know how to keep tabs on what matters.
Veteran pollster Michael Cohen (not the former Trump lawyer) offers some critical guidelines to follow through the rest of August and into September (there’s some debate underway about how much the country is tuned in now versus whether this reshaped White House race “starts” after Labor Day as more voters tune in.)
Key indicators from Cohen:
Harris “needs keep upbeat, let it melt Trump, then have a single good debate”
Trump “needs to find a way under her skin, which is going to be hard but is always possible”
The debate (and possibly more) will matter, Harris and Trump have never debated and the country is still being introduced to Harris.
The race hasn’t really started, Harris’s entry effectively pushed the U.S. back to its previous standing as a “split country” politically.
6. Targeted Messaging
Trump is back on X.com, formerly known as Twitter (more on that in the next item). But unlike some serial social media posters, Trump isn’t just copying and pasting the same message across platforms, he’s tailoring to his respective audience.
Veteran reporter Ben Jacobs reports:
7. Too Online
Trump is re-engaging on X.com as his standing in the race has slid and he looks for renewed attention. Media tycoon and global billionaire Elon Musk will interview Trump on his platform tonight. (Your author is old enough to remember when Musk launched Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s campaign on the same platform last year.)
For a jarring experience, read back through Trump’s timeline — just two tweets since January 6th and its aftermath (when Trump’s account was suspended amid concerns of ongoing violence and after Musk reactivated his account but Trump snubbed him and stayed on his own social media platform.
Notably absent from Trump’s X.com timeline is the famous tweet in which he (falsely) accused then-Vice President Mike Pence of having the power to throw the election in their favor. Trump’s tweet, flashed to millions — including insurrectionists trying to break through police lines at the Capitol — fueled a surge of violence, captured by security cameras at the Capitol in real-time and helped get rioters within 40 feet of confronting Pence and his family.
Dig The 7. Looking forward to your POV in Chicago.