The 24 Seven, Questions: Elise Labott Edition
Seven questions on a top issue shaping the race, today Elise Labott explains the state of things in the Israel Hamas War
Elise Labott is a leading journalist specializing in US foreign policy and global affairs and an adjunct professor at American University’s School of International Service. She is the author of Cosmopolitics by Elise Labott and founder and Editor-in-Chief of
on, a non-profit digital platform that engages youth on political and global issues, civic engagement, and media literacy.1. Escalation
TL: Why is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu escalating the conflict now? Has the shakeup of the American presidential race affected his thinking?
EL: I’m not sure it’s affecting him in a major way. The strike against Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut was directly avenging the attack in northern Israel that killed 12 Druze children. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was more of a target of opportunity. Netanyahu didn’t want to anger Qatar or Egypt by killing him in those countries, so it was a calculated risk to take him out in Iran. While the location was brazen, it wasn’t a surprise that Israel killed either one of them.
Netanyahu hasn’t exactly paid much heed to Biden in terms of his decisions thus far. We can question he thinks of Biden as a lame duck, but he still can’t ignore Biden or spit in his face. He needs to consider all of the cover Biden continues to give him. Because right now, it doesn’t matter who wins the election in November when the war is still ongoing, and the new American president doesn’t take office until January.
2. Compared to previous conflicts
TL: Where does the Israel/Hamas War rank in terms of other major armed conflicts in Israel since its establishment in 1948?
EL: Hamas’ October 7 attack was probably the worst attack on Israel since its creation, in addition to being the worst day for Jews since the Holocaust. In terms of the ensuing conflict with Hamas, it ranks among the highest.
The only comparable conflict in terms of casualties would be the war with Lebanon in 1982, where about 19,000 people were killed. During the Israeli War of Independence, more than 6,000 Israelis and 10,000 Arabs were killed. And 2,500 Israelis and 15,000 Arabs were killed during the Yom Kippur War.
The 2006 war with Lebanon and the two Palestinian intifadas, the first between 1987 and 1993 and the second between 2000 and 2005, were major conflicts with thousands of people killed, but not nearly as catastrophic in terms of the number of casualties and collateral damage.
With an estimated 39,000 Palestinians killed during the war and more than 1,100 Israelis killed on October 7, this is monumental. And the war is not over; it could go on for a while longer and expand into a two-front conflict with Hezbollah in the north, potentially causing thousands more deaths.
3. An expanding war?
TL: You wrote recently about the tactical success of Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and whether that show of force is good strategic thinking on Israel’s part — is this going as Israel’s leaders expected? We saw the Hezbollah attack and retaliatory strike from Netanyahu. Is this expanding into a broader regional war?
EL: I think it’s too soon to tell. Israel and the U.S. are bracing for some sort of retaliation from Hezbollah and/or Iran. Iran almost certainly will respond, both to reassert deterrence against Israel and to reclaim its bruised prestige in the region from having Haniyeh killed on its soil.
There has always been a sense that no side wants to cross the red lines and the rules of the game that have been established. In April, Iran launched hundreds of missiles against Israel to avenge its assassination of an IRGC commander. That broke the taboo of “no direct hits” between Israel and Iran. But even that was more about posturing without triggering a full- blown war because Israel’s allies and Iron Dome were able to intercept it. Then Israel responded with a minor strike in Tehran. Then both sides kind of said “game over.” A skirmish like that would likely see the conflict continue as it is, with low-level tit-for-tat strikes. The U.S. is scrambling to revive that regional coalition from April – including Britain and Arab allies – to defend against Israel.
There is a belief that this time there could be assaults from several fronts. It’s possible Iran will channel its retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas rather than a direct confrontation with Israel. Today, several U.S. personnel were injured in a suspected rocket attack at a military base in Iraq, presumably from Iranian-backed militias, who have increased attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria. We could also see terrorist attacks on embassies or Israeli citizens. The scope of this response will determine whether this escalates further. If there are a lot of Israeli or American casualties, all bets are off.
4. Humanitarian aid
TL: What is the status of humanitarian efforts to Gaza? This got a lot of attention near the start of the war, particularly with Chef Jose Andres’ efforts and the floating pier, but seems to be getting less attention of late.
EL: There are more aid trucks getting in than at the start of the war, but not nearly enough to meet the need. There are also problems with the delivery of aid, including restrictions on movement, continued issues surrounding aid worker safety, communications challenges, and a lack of fuel. Law and order has also broken down, and food is often looted. Aid groups say the majority of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance, including clean water, food, and medical services.
The U.S. military says its humanitarian pier off the coast of Gaza, hampered by bad weather and aid distribution problems, will shut down soon. The pier brought in 8,100 metric tons of aid to a marshaling area on Gaza’s shore since it started operating in May, and those operations could shift to the Israeli port of Ashdod. The United Arab Emirates has also launched intensive relief efforts to support the affected families in Gaza, setting up dozens of shelter tents for displaced families and supplying tons of food aid.
The Israeli government has highlighted its efforts to expand aid to Gaza. However, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said this week he believes blocking humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip is “justified and moral” even if it causes two million civilians to die of hunger, even if the international community won’t allow that to happen.
5. Ceasefire?
TL: Is a brokered ceasefire still in the cards?
EL: I think so. There are various opinions as to whether killing Haniyeh pressures Hamas to make a deal or complicates it. President Biden is concerned that the assassination makes the deal more difficult. And you saw the tweet by Qatar’s Prime Minister, who is leading negotiations, questioning how mediation can succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side.
Even though he was one of the negotiators, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza and the brain behind the October 7 attack, remains alive and has the final say over any hostage deal and ceasefire. The head of Mossad and Shin Bet just returned from Egypt, where they had indirect talks with American and Egyptian officials about a deal, and returned empty-handed. So the assassination may not have completely derailed a deal, but it has certainly delayed it.
6. The remaining hostages
TL: What is the status of the Israelis still being held hostage?
EL: It is believed that 111 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of 39 confirmed dead by the IDF. They have been in captivity for just over 300 days.
There is a lot of unhappiness and distrust with Netanyahu’s handling of the hostage issue. Israeli media is reporting that Israeli security chiefs believe Netanyahu is obstructing the hostage deal/ceasefire and that one of the lead negotiators, Nitzan Alon, could resign as a result. If that happens, Netanyahu would likely appoint somebody more in line with his thinking. But if Alon, who has run negotiations for the last 10 months, comes out and says ‘the only thing that’s preventing a deal is Netanyahu himself,’ that would likely bring people to the streets, especially the hostage families.
7. Election outcomes?
TL: How does the war change, assuming it’s ongoing, if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the White House?
EL: I honestly don’t think it makes a huge difference. The rhetoric may change – Harris may be more mindful about Palestinian casualties - but the United States is going to protect Israel’s security regardless. In a regional context, Hezbollah and the Iranians may be more deterred by Trump, but even they think Trump is unpredictable. Plus, so much can happen in the next six or seven months.
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