Senate Race Countdown, Pt. 1 - Tom LoBianco Reports, Ep. 12
The battle for control of the Senate starts here
Support independent journalism, $5/month, $50/year. No billionaires, no bribes.
Welcome to the 12th episode of Tom LoBianco Reports, a new show from 24sight News and our friends at Political Voices Network. Monday through Friday, tune in here on Substack at Noon ET and then catch the replay at 8p ET at Political Voices Network.
Each weekday, I’ll bring you along as I report the story. Along with my friend and colleague Ian B. Walters, we’ll dive down the late-night, screen-glazed rabbit hole of the modern interwebs, acting as your personal guide to what’s real and what’s complete bullshit. (For our live viewers at noon, reply to this email or send in your comments in the live chat and we’ll get to them at the end of the show.)
*** Virginia special election update, Democratic candidate James Walkinshaw dominated (as expected) in the special election yesterday for the 11th Congressional District, winning 75% - 25% over Republican Stewart Whitson, per local news hub WTOP. ***
On today’s show:
Senate Countdown, Pt. 1
The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is shaping up fast, so today I’ll start the first in a two-part rundown of the biggest races to watch.
I’m going roughly in order of least to most competitive, with a big tip of the hat to the essential Cook Political Report. (Make sure to subscribe!)
The countdown today:
10. Virginia
Former Virginia governor, one-time possible White House aspirant and veteran senator Mark Warner is running for a fourth term. He easily won his last race in 2020 and looks on a glidepath to re-election next year.
But the Commonwealth is home to much of the GOP’s old guard (and more than a few big name political consultants) and it’s early, so don’t count on a pass by the Rs on this one. More as the race develops.
9. Texas
Big Red.
The Dems have been trying mightily to win a Senate seat here for years and, running against the surprisingly divisive veteran Sen. Ted Cruz, have sometimes come oh-so-close. In 2018, a big wave year for Democrats, popular San Antonio Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within a hair of upsetting Cruz, losing 50.8% - 48.3%, six years later Democrats felt good with former Tennessee Titans linebacker Colin Allred. But Cruz coasted to re-election, 53% - 44.5%.
The Dems won’t have Cruz to romp on this cycle, but they could get scandal-plagued attorney general Ken Paxton. And the Democratic primary is already hot, with Allred running again and rising star James Talarico jumping in the race.
8 Iowa
Two-term Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision to retire at the end of this term opens up a “reach seat” for the Dems. But Republicans have already secured her de facto successor in veteran Iowa pol and former TV newscaster Ashley Hinson.
Dems have a number of military veterans who were polling well in hypothetical matchups against Ernst. But they’re not running against her anymore.
7 Minnesota
The frozen upper Midwest has long been a home of practical progressive stalwarts (it is the Democratic Farm Labor Party there, after all.) And home to the national party’s chair, Ken Martin.
But Republicans have had success here in the past statewide, with favorites like Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Norm Coleman and the Trump GOP has been bullish on turning Minnesota into the country’s newest battleground state (Kamala Harris only won by four percentage points here in 2024.)
6 Maine
Veteran Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins is often concerned, as the last of a handful of moderates in the upper chamber, with all that’s been happening the last decade. But should she be concerned with her re-election prospects?
On paper this looks like a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in a possible wave year in a New England that is increasingly unified Blue. She easily beat Democratic recruit Sara Gideon six years ago, but it’s still early in the race up in Lobsterville.
The Stakes
Democrats need to flip at least four Republican-held seats to win back the Senate, a tall order.
I’ll run us down the map for the first of this two-part series. See you in a bit.
What’s Next
We’re planning our Thursday and Friday shows. Keep it tuned here.
Catch up
Did you miss Tuesday’s show? Watch it here! The pressure is on for Dems to fight it all the way *maybe* to a shutdown. But as my colleague
they may not even get the chance.
Indiana Deepfake Series
Indiana Deepfake: Lt. Gov's office adopts new employee handbook, Gov. calls in Beckwith for meeting
Indiana Deepfake: Lawmaker whose wife targeted launching Congressional bid
BREAKING: Lt. Gov. spokesman quits amid deepfake probe, per sources
Indy prosecutor probes topless deepfake, Haggard blasts 'pornographic smear' of his wife
Topless deepfake video roils Indiana office, lawmaker's wife targeted, per sources
Help build the 24sight News community. Sign up, follow, subscribe, share, comment. Support the mission of real journalism, accountability, speaking truth to power.
YouTube | Bluesky | TikTok | X (when necessary) | The OG, Substack
News that cuts through
Sponsors of 24sight News get in front of our highly engaged audience of decisionmakers, professionals, thought leaders, national media and more. Get in touch to discuss sponsorship options: sales@24sight.news.