Iowa Blue? - Tom LoBianco Reports, Ep. 4
New polling, a surprise Democratic victory and attacks on the Iowa's economic cornerstones are showing streaks of blue. Join me at Noon ET for the next episode of Tom LoBianco Reports.
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Welcome to the fourth episode of Tom LoBianco Reports, a new show from 24sight News and our friends at
. Every day, Monday through Friday, tune in here on Substack at Noon ET for a chat (usually) about the most pressing issues and (occasionally) about some lighter fare.Talk is cheap and opinions aplenty, but the story only reveals itself through reporting.
Each weekday, I’ll bring you along as I report the story. Along with my friend and colleague
, we’ll dive down the late-night, screen-glazed rabbit hole of the modern interwebs, acting as your personal guide to what’s real and what’s complete bullshit.If you want to join live, you can tune in every day on Substack. If you miss me, then hop on over to The Political Voices Network for the evening replay. If you’ve got questions or comments, just reply to this email and I’ll see it.
*** Ian will be gathering your comments during the liveshow and I’ll dive in on them in the last 10-15 minutes of the show. You can drop them in the Substack chat during the show or reply to this email and we’ll see them. ***
Programming note: Tune in to C-SPAN Washington Journal Monday at 9a ET. I’m on with James McArdle talking about the Midterm Elections, the new world of independent journalism and more. Then Tuesday at 2p ET, stop in for a discussion with New York Times best-selling author, veteran journalist and new Substacker
— we’re trading notes on J.D. Vance vs. Mike Pence as Trump’s second-in-command. (Kate authored an excellent book on VPs and their relationships with presidents a few years ago, “First in Line”.)Coming up on today’s show:
The Top: Blue Iowa?
A dead whale, an ICE agent and a pseudo-hippie walk into the beer pavilion at the Iowa State Fair. For now, it seems like the joke’s on the Trump Republican Party.
The punchline draws from the state’s economy, built on a mix of renewable energy blue collar jobs, the meatpacking industry and healthcare workers — all getting slapped by Trump’s new taxes, cuts and radical deporations.
In recent years the Hawkeye State has been considered solid Republican territory. But new polling, a special election victory by Democrats and a deep dive into Iowa’s recent elections show signs Democrats could be making a comeback.
The Nut Graf:
Democrat Catelin Drey won a surprise special election in to the Iowa state Senate’s 1st District this week, breaking the GOP’s supermajority hold there, as The Washington Post reported.
The don’t-read-too-much-from-that crowd notes it’s a special election with very low turnout and a lot of national engagement from Dems. The big-win crowd says it’s huge because of the district’s deep-red voter base (in the northwest of the state where former Rep. Steve King used to hail from).
There’s other signs of blue peeking out.
Longtime politics junkie and analyst
even placed Iowa’s Rob Sands on the list of 10 governor’s races to watch in 2026. In an otherwise national romp for Republicans in 2024, Democrats came within a hair of winning the state’s 1st and 3rd Congressional seats, and could flip them next year.But don’t mark it Blue just yet. If the Congressional races look abnormally close for a hyper-partisan, gerrymandered world that’s because its controlled by a nonpartisan process adopted in 1980, according to The Des Moines Register.
Hot Quote
“We’re all going to die.” That was two-term Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst snapping back at a town hall when she was pressed on Medicaid cuts in the Republicans “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
Now polling shows a slew of Democratic contenders coming in striking distance of ousting Ernst and possibly sending the first Democrat from Iowa to the Senate since Tom Harkin retired in 2015. (There’s really only one available Senate seat there, seeing as Chuck Grassley has held the other since the Pleistocene Era.)
Deep Background
It’s Donald Trump’s Republican Party now. January 2024 in the freezing cold started Trump’s march back to absolute control of one of America’s two major political parties with his walloping performance in Iowa caucuses.
But nine years ago, he narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz there and almost lost to then-Sen. Marco Rubio (it also marked his first false accusation of a “rigged election”, now a hallmark of his.)
And Republicans in Iowa have a deep well of Christian fundamentalist activists to draw from.
All pointing to Iowa showing more purple than red or blue.
What’s Next
Coming up tomorrow, it’s Friday Funday, no politics. Ok, probably some politics. We’re talking boxing. Join us at Noon ET.
Catch up
Did you miss yesterday’s show? Watch it here! Every day’s live show, Noon ET, premiers at 8p ET on the Political Voices Network YouTube page.
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