The 24 Seven: Under the Radar
The 24 Seven: Under the Radar
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House
1. Georgia School Shooting
A 14-year-old Georgia student, Colt Gray, is alleged to have shot four other students at Apalachee High School, CBS News reports. New details about the shooting are continuing to be reported, including news that the suspect was tipped off to the FBI.
It’s the latest grueling mass shooting to hit a school, and, sadly, continues to resurface the issue over how to protect students just as the school year has started and the race for the White House is swinging into full gear.
Abortion, the economy, immigration, even the continued fallout from the January 6th insurrection and the long-stalled criminal trials involving former president Donald Trump, have dominated much of the attention re: animating issues for voters.
Over the summer, I covered a rally that Harris headlined for Maryland’s Democratic Senate candidate, Angela Alsobrooks. (This was still weeks before Biden’s debate flop which started the churn of historic events which led to him dropping from the race and anointing Harris his successor.) At the event, I was struck by a number of things including the raw enthusiasm among the crowd of Democratic activists for Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and the fervent response for Harris as she said the terror students and parents face must end.
A generation of anti-gun violence activists have grown from being classmates and parents of victims across the country into candidates and professional operatives, building a groundswell of support on the issue which doesn’t always grab headlines in this jampacked White House race. I’m keeping a close eye on this.
2. ‘Underdog’
The official spin from Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon is that their campaign is the “underdog” in the race for the White House, and the incredibly tight margins in most major (and credible) polling of the race lends some credence to that spin.
But campaign prognosticator Allan Lichtman deems it already in the bag for Harris. Lichtman gives the race to Harris based on his 13 keys (which famously predicted Trump’s surprise win in 2016, contrary to just about every other election forecaster who showed it likely to go to Hillary Clinton). Lichtman, in a video produced by The New York Times, says it’s Harris’ to lose.
(I highly suggest you watch the full video to get the tone and read of Lichtman’s analysis, including some good pushback at points from the NYT’s crew. I don’t necessarily agree with Lichtman’s reads on the state of things, but he has a strong track record.)
Did the party controlling the White House make gains in the midterm elections (2022)? No. Republicans retook the House. (Advantage Trump.)
Is the incumbent running for re-election? No. Biden withdrew from the race. (Advantage Trump.)
Democratic party primary fight? No, Harris was effectively anointed without a primary. (Advantage Harris.)
No third party challenger? Yes (per Lichtman, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. now on board with Trump. Though your author would note that Cornel West and Jill Stein do still have sizable followings.) (Advantage Harris.)
Short-term economy good? Yes, per Lichtman. (Advantage Harris.)
Long-term economy good? Yes, growth is strong under Biden. (Advantage Harris.)
Major policy changes by White House? Yes, Lichtman cites a number of big-ticket items Biden and the Dems passed. (Advantage Harris.)
No sustained social unrest? Yes. (Advantage Harris.)
No major White House scandal? Yes. Again, urge you to watch the video to hear his take, especially on Hunter Biden. (Advantage Harris.)
Incumbent charismatic? No. (Advantage Harris.)
Challenger uncharasmatic? Yes. (Advantage Harris.)
Foreign policy failure?
Foreign policy success? Lichtman and the NYT don’t give a clear answer on these last two other than to say that even if they land in Trump’s favor, Harris still has enough points (eight out of the total 13) to win.
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3. Foreign Ops
The Justice Department, in an indictment unsealed Wednesday, accused two Russian operatives of funneling $10 million dollars to Tennessee startup Tenet Media, as part of an elaborate effort to sway the 2024 election in Trump’s favor, CNN reports.
Federal investigators detailed an elaborate plan to spread Russian propaganda, largely pushing for the U.S. to end its assistance for Ukraine in the ongoing Russian invasion, including nationalist populist online celebrities Tim Pool, Benny Johnson and Lauren Chen, co-founder with her husband of Tenet Media. Justice cites internal communications from Chen and her husband acknowledging they knew that the money was coming from Russia.
(Chen was let go from Blaze Media following the indictment, Semafor scooped Thursday. Pool, Johnson and four other populist media influencers cited by investigators said, in statements, that they were victims of the Russian operation, and decried Russian President Vladimir Putin.)
The affidavit filed by the Justice Department is quite the read. It also tracks with the movement of the nationalist populist wing of the right, which has been pushing for years to end U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
And the Justice Department announced Wednesday more is coming.
“The charges unveiled this morning do not represent the end of this investigation,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said Thursday ahead of a meeting of the task force investigating threats against election workers.
This adds to the thread of foreign adversaries looking to covertly sway American opinion on pivotal issues.
Separately Wednesday, the Justice Department accused a former top aide to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, Linda Sun, of accepting millions of dollars from the Chinese Communist Party, to recraft messaging from the state in China’s favor on major issues like Taiwan’s independence, Fox News reports.
And, of course, former U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez who was found guilty on 16 counts two months of taking bribes to secretly pressure on behalf of foreign interests.
4. Hunter Biden Plea
Hunter Biden offered an “Alford” plea in his tax evasion case, effectively a guilty plea (with the caveat that the defendant does not officially plead guilty, but instead says the prosecution has enough evidence to find them guilty), Politico reports.
The move could potentially avoid his second criminal trial this year.
5. Voting Battle
With early voting about to begin shortly in Pennsylvania and all signs pointing to it being neck and neck between Harris and Trump there (at the moment) it’s worth looking at one of the critical X factors in the battle for the commonwealth, the state of mail-in and early voting.
The leaders of New Pennsylvania Project, which is pushing for broader access to early voting and counting of ballots, highlighted a pivotal ruling from the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court (which handles voting cases) last week determining that mail-in ballots cannot be disqualified for being dated incorrectly or submitted with errors on external envelopes.
The national and state Republican parties appealed the ruling a few days later asking the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to overturn the finding.
Watch for more court action on this issue in Pennsylvania, landing at the last minute as counties begin opening early voting.
6. Pro Trump?
The protester at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania who many a social-media pundit deemed pro-Trump after he stormed the press stand? Turns out to he was an anti-Trump activist from Pittsburgh, and also charged with a misdemeanor for disorderly conduct and resisting arrest.
has the goods here.7. At least he’s housebroken
Veteran political operator, pundit and Twitter/X talker Liam Donovan got the Big Lebowski treatment online after the stunning report that from the Justice Department that the founders of Tenet Media allegedly knew they were being paid by Russian operatives to spread Russian propaganda.
Tenet Media founder Lauren Chen was already discussed earlier here.
The other Tenet founder? Liam Donovan.
No, not that Liam Donovan, the (allegedly) millionaire Liam Donovan.
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Cheers,
Tom