The 24 Seven, Questions: Rob Burgess Edition

The top seven issues shaping the race for the White House, from 24sight News

America Melting - AI Generated - Tom LoBianco/24sight News

Hey friends, trying a new format here — seven questions for an area expert (in this case campaigns). Our very first expert here is Rob Burgess, a longtime Republican campaign strategist, author of Connector, Inc here on Substack. If you’re interested in participating in the Seven Questions format, drop a line: tom@24sight.news.

And a special favor to ask — if you haven’t already, please fill out this customer survey. It helps us target our coverage and understand what works best (beyond the blazing insights routinely offered up here at 24sight.)

1. What’s changed?

TL: Rob, thanks for providing some perspective on what has to be the wildest race any of us have witnessed (I write as we both still have most of our hair and not too much gray). What changed after last week?

RB: Thanks for asking me to participate, Tom. I agree — we’re looking at one of the most unusual and potentially consequential presidential elections of our lifetime. Not because of the historic nature of it, but rather because one of the major parties is going to have a nominee that didn’t receive a single vote during the primary season. I think you’ll agree with me that Republicans have been pointing at Joe Biden for nearly four years and have been saying “Something isn’t completely right with this guy . . . he doesn’t seem to be all there.” Kamala Harris, national Democrats, and a vast majority of mainstream media ignored these observations and assured the American people that Biden was completely fine and healthy. Then we had the debate in Atlanta and it became abundantly clear to the American people that Republicans were right. The solution in the eyes of national Democrats was essentially a palace revolution we have never seen the likes of here in the United States. Couple that with the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump during a rally in Butler Township, Pennsylvania, Republicans have seen an influx of new voters, returning voters, and converted voters who see that event as pivotal in this election cycle. One lifelong democrat small business owner in Old Town Alexandria told me just last week that he is voting for Trump because “…if they want him gone that badly, he must really be willing to shake up the status quo and roll back what we have been experiencing the last three years." 

2. What hasn’t changed?

TL: So, clearly that was an earthquake, but the early polling has shown little in the way of dramatic swings — Trump still leading or running even with Harris within a few points. So, even though this was another cataclysmic week in the race for the White House, there seem to be bedrock principles and forces driving the race. Why haven’t things shifted more, one way or another?

RB:  Because at the end of the day, the two candidates we’re looking at are two of the most polarizing individuals in the country. There are people who support Donald Trump full bore and there are people who will never support him no matter his good qualities or policies. Then flip it to the democratic side of the ticket and Kamala Harris is the most unpopular Vice President in the history of the country. It isn’t just that people don’t like her, its that they don’t trust her or her command of the issues facing American families — most specifically the Southern Border which Joe Biden placed her in-charge of (even if media is backtracking off of their own coverage of that now). Lastly, the level of polarization in our country has not changed. I have hope that it will decrease in the coming months, but more likely than not we’re looking at years until a change when it comes to the vitriol between Democrats and Republicans.

3. The Veepstakes (Part Deux)

TL: Who would you recommend Harris take as her running mate? What are the upsides and downsides to someone like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, or Minnesota Governor Tim Walz? Who are we missing here?

RB: You’ve hit a lot of the name that have definitely been floated about, Tom. I would include Michigan Senator Gary Peters and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to that list. However, if I were a Democrat and someone within Kamala Harris’ inner circle asked me who should be considered, I would immediately lean towards Shapiro or Peters — two completely different candidates that bring completely different skillsets to the office of Vice President, but in my opinion the only two individuals that could potentially help a Kamala Harris ticket. Gary Peters is a respected voice in the Senate on both sides of the aisle and knows how the Hill works while Josh Shapiro would be a generational pick for Democrats. Now, let me add this caveat: the amount of “help” that any vice presidential candidate can actually provided is limited to non-existent. At no point in our nation’s history has the bottom of a presidential ticket swung a swing state. The perfect example is former Speaker Paul Ryan when he was named then-Governor Mitt Romney’s running mate in 2012. He was Wisconsin’s native son and was supposed to help ensure that the Badger State would swing red. Ultimately, President Obama won Wisconsin by nearly 7 points.

4. The Map

TL: How do you see the map right now? What states are in play? If you’re the Democrats or Republicans, where do you focus your efforts?

RB: As it sits right now, I would say that there are five maybe six states in play. Those being Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (North Carolina being the potential sixth state, but I would say it currently leans red). If the election were today and every state had reported with the exception of those five, that would leave 61 electoral votes up for grabs — Republicans holding 251 (from 26 states) and Democrats holding 226 (from 19 states and the District of Columbia). In this scenario (and not accounting for a third party candidate) I see six potential paths to victory for Republicans while only three for Democrats . . . and the Democrats must win Pennsylvania in every one of those scenarios. Republicans can and should spend their focus in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

5. The Math

TL: There's still a sense that this is a "base" election -- the movement in the polling has come largely from the Democratic base being re-energized. Trump's team has been saying their focus is on turning out white men and Democrats say they're focusing on suburban women. Should the candidates be playing to their base? Focusing more on swing voters and undecideds?

RB: Campaigns should always communicate to their base . . . but never exclusively. In reality, campaigns will spend a vast majority of their resources reaching out to those persuadable voters who aren’t sure exactly where to land. The RNC and the Trump campaign have invested heavily in an aggressive voter ID program to help make this outreach more efficient and effective. Since 2020, volunteers have been knocking on doors, making phone calls, sending text messages, and talking to voters in public spaces, asking them where they stand on the candidates and the most important issues facing our country. There is a very real possibility that this long-term investment pays dividends for Republicans up and down the ballot this year.

6. What happened to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.?

TL: We’re both old enough to remember when Kennedy stormed the race last summer and had remarkable staying power, bordering on Ross Perot (circa 1992) style numbers. But that’s cratered since Biden got out of the race — why? Is he still drawing equally from Trump and Harris supporters, or has that become a lopsided spoiler now?

RB: I think RFK Jr.’s race has become a lopsided spoiler now. Post-Biden and after the attempted assassination of President Trump, I think the electorate tightened its view of who the candidates were. Look at how the RFK Jr. campaign is spending their money . . . I saw at least a half dozen driving digital billboards in the Navy Yard area of Washington, D.C. earlier this week. If you’re trying to be a spoiler, the three electoral votes that Washington, D.C. brings isn’t providing the bang for the buck. This race is between President Trump and Vice President Harris . . . and I would say it leans Donald Trump’s way right now.

7. Other Races

TL: What other races are you watching outside of the battle for the White House this year?

RB: That’s a great question and I admit that I spend a lot of time looking at House races around the country — especially with Republicans holding such a narrow majority. I am watching New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional to see if former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell can regain that seat for Republicans as well as Michigan’s 7th and 8th Congressional Districts. I am also watching Mayra Flores in Texas, Congressman Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, and Congressman Mike Lawler in New York.

Rob Burgess is a national Republican strategist and campaign veteran, ranging from city council races to presidential races. He is currently the CEO and Chief Strategist at Connector, Inc. — a boutique government relations and political affairs firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and Dallas, TX. He oversees Connector’s developing and diverse portfolio of political clients which have included a U.S. Presidential campaign, numerous U.S. Congressional campaigns, and several federal Super PACs. He is principally responsible for cultivating strategic agency partnerships and political business development worldwide. Rob’s experience extends to Capitol Hill, where he is considered an expert on Congressional mass communications as well as crisis management, media affairs, and public relations. He and his wife (Greta) currently reside in Washington, D.C., with their son. You can learn more about Connector, Inc. at www.connector.inc or follow them on Substack and you can follow Rob on X at @rkburgess.