The 24 Seven: Promises Made
The 24 Seven: Promises Made
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House
1. What Brung Him
President Joe Biden returned to the campaign trail Labor Day in Pittsburgh, continuing a long-running tradition of rallying labor support in the commonwealth, now in support of Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Biden’s anecdote about jokingly wishing that his great-grandfather had been a “Molly Maguire”, a member of the Irish-American rebels who fought against British-American mine owners, sometimes murdering them, drew the most attention in the viral online media world.
But the bigger play to anyone who listened may have been Biden touting his support of the Butch Lewis Act, which shored up employee pension plans — including many union households. (Harris drew headlines saying she opposes U.S. Steel’s plans to sell to Japan’s Nippon Steel, Biden and former president Donald Trump oppose the proposed sale as well.)
One question now is how much Biden will be pounding the campaign trail in the next two months for Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
2. Pay Attention now
Taegan Goddard, who writes the essential reading Political Wire, has this sharp analysis here — the sprint to Election Day is the right time to begin paying attention to the polling and forecasting. More likely voters and much vaunted persuadable voters are beginning to pay attention now, which should help the quality of information we’re consuming.
Goddard, who’s been aggregating political news for decades now, offers some good basics (often take as granted to those of us in the weeds): Watch state numbers, not national as much — elections are won based on winning states via the Electoral College, beware nitpickers who go digging into polling crosstabs on the social medias cherrypicking details for confirmation bias, and more.
And I’ll second his key advice: Buckle up!
3. Borderlines
The Trump campaign heads into the final sprint lacing into Harris with one of the key consistents of his decade in politics, promising to crackdown on immigration. The ad, like most political ads, over-exaggerates and flat out incorrectly states some of Harris’s roles and positions, CNN’s Daniel Dale notes.
The big tell here, however, is that the Trump campaign — if not the candidate himself — has strategically decided that in the final two months of the race this, plus inflation and grocery store prices, are the winning issues for them, putting millions of campaign ad-spending behind that decision (and polling has routinely backed that up.
4. Trump Jr.
Trump running mate J.D. Vance, Ohio’s junior senator, has been prolific in press gaggles, campaign trail interviews and on-air, particularly the still-important Sunday shows from the major cables and networks. Inside the I-95 corridor this may be perceived to be in spite of his persistent ridicule, for prior comments like attacking “childless cat ladies” and disproven allegations that he fornicated with a couch once — something of the Democratic equivalent of the equally disprovable claims that China and Italy threw the 2020 election to Biden. (None of these things happened, but in partisan circles they are profligate and defining attributes, sadly.)
And among likely voters, Vance is repeatedly “under water” — with higher negative views of him than favorable. Instead, Vance seems to be performing a role akin to what Trump did in 2016 repeatedly offering himself to press, then trolling by leaning into criticisms and drawing fire on himself — building his national profile among the nationalist-populist base of Republican voters in the process.
It’s not clear this hurts or helps Trump and the GOP ticket much, but it is clearly building Vance’s national profile.
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5. Endless War
There’s little sign that The Israel Hamas War is headed toward a ceasefire, either before votes start being cast in two weeks or before the end of voting in November — the latest flashpoint was the brutal murdering of six Israeli hostages.
If Trump and the Republican Party’s critical weakness is among educated suburbanites, and disenfranchised longtime Republicans and conservatives (listen to former Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey on CNBC earlier today explain that he won’t vote for Trump because of his 2020 election lies, but won’t vote for Harris either) then the divide opened by the Israel Hamas War is the critical weakness for Democrats, particularly among progressive activists angry with Harris and Biden for ignoring their demands.
Particularly watch this in Michigan, with a large Muslim-American population, where Democratic primary voters registered their discontent in February with a whopping 13.2 percent casting a protest “uncommitted” vote.
The best I can tell, this is a turnout election, not a swing vote election.
6. Lugar Honored
Richard Lugar was honored Tuesday with the unveiling of a new monument in downtown Indianapolis, Indy’s Fox 59 reports.
Indiana Capital Chronicle, one of the many state-level non-profit newsrooms which have filled the void in the states left by legacy news outlets, has a nice look behind the scenes at the crafting of the monument.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues threatening the use of nuclear weapons, the latest being a promise that he has an “invincible” intercontinental nuclear missile, Lugar’s historic work on securing nuclear arms and disarmament remains very relevant.
(Lugar detailed some of his efforts, aided by then-Vice President Mike Pence, in 2018 to help educate then-President Trump, on the issue of nuclear disarmament in my 2019 biography of Pence.)
7. Bring Your Questions Wednesday Morning
Tune in to C-SPAN Washington Journal tomorrow morning, 8a - 8:45a ET, I’ll be talking about the race for the White House, the mission of independent journalism and 24sight News and taking your questions!
And my discussion with old Hoosier friend Robert Vane at his Leaders and Legends podcast is now live. Indiana statehouse reporting star, who writes for The Star (of Indianapolis), Kayla Dwyer, joined with great insights and on-the-ground reporting.
Give a listen!
🚨🚨🚨 If you made it this far and would like full access to 24sight News, I’ve got a Pennsylvania special for you, upgrade to a paid subscription to support independent journalism now through the Sept. 10 debate in Philly for 76% of the regular price. (And welcome to all new 24sight News supporters who signed up through my DNC special access drive!)
Cheers,
Tom