The 24 Seven: In Gear

The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House

Boss, by Mike Royko. (Chicago courtesy Wikimedia Commons. (Boss cover via Goodreads. Graphic by Tom LoBianco/24sight News.)

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1. Machinery

Few cities have as storied a political history tied to machine politics as thoroughly as Chicago and its Democratic Party. If you’re reading this newsletter, you’ve probably read “Boss” — the essential story of Chicago’s Richard J. Daley. (If you haven’t yet, or if it’s been a while, buy it here.)

Old intraparty rivalries seem to have been dispatched with, at least for now. Harris and her team have brought on top talent like David Plouffe from Barack Obama’s team, kept on President Joe Biden’s braintrust, and homestate Democrats, led by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, look to be unified behind beating Trump and Vance.

Modern party conventions are almost always about unity, or at least achieving unity, healing old primary wounds and energizing the base and party faithful heading into the final stretch of the race. The historic swap out between Biden and Harris, plus the urgency of a sprint to the finish line seems to have accomplished much of this well

Of course, we have yet to see the breadth of the pro-Palestinian protests outside the convention.

(Look for me at the Illinois delegation breakfast each morning, Monday through Thursday, where I’ll be stringing coverage for my friend — and now full-time radio talent — Patrick Pfingsten, founder of

The Illinoize

and host “Springfield’s Morning News” 92.7 WMAY-FM.)

2. Competing attention

Republican nominee Donald Trump, running mate J.D. Vance and a cavalcade of Trump surrogates announced a series of campaign events and conferences in battleground states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all week.

3. Dem Messaging

The DNC released it’s official programming for the week with a focus on freedom and the future. Full details here.

Veteran analyst and politics expert Bruce Mehlman breaks down the 180-degree move in messaging by Democrats — away from Biden’s painting of Trump directly as a “threat” to deeming Trump’s brand as “weird”.

Mehlman’s Six-chart Sunday is always a good read, but this one especially sharp in understanding just why sentiment has shifted so much in the last four weeks.

Six-Chart Sunday (#30) - A Campaign Reimagined

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4. State of the horserace

The latest batch of findings from The New York Times/Siena polling operation continues to show Harris and Walz with a slight, yet persistent, edge over Trump and Walz — which has helped reshape the electoral map, placing Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina back in play.

(Trump’s campaign team, in response to a now string of NYT/Siena polls showing Harris taking a lead, has routinely dismissed them as skewed and having a history of missing the final election outcome.)

538’s aggregate continues to show Harris/Walz with a steady lead in national polling. And Nate Silver and his team at

Silver Bulletin

continue to giving Harris and Walz the edge in their most recent update (which includes the NYT/Siena findings.)

Pence holds out hope for a vanished GOP

5. Venezuela

Recommend this deep dive from 24sight friend

Arturo Dominguez

on the Biden/Harris administration’s continued dancing around the recent Venezuelan election which, by most verifiable accounts, was stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro.

Venezuela Election Update | August 16, 2024

6. Raised Eyebrows

Politico’s Gary Fineout delivers this report on veteran lawmaker Rep. Matt Gaetz’s expectations that he will trounce former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s handpicked primary opponent Tuesday.

7. Why 24sight?

I picked this name years ago, before the true shape of this race was set. (Back then I was still ranking possible R candidates like Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton — what a difference a few years makes.)

Of the many notes I scribbled while crafting this idea, this sat at the top of one of my notepads: “Hindsight is 2020, this is 24sight.”

Fairly corny at the time, but also, I’d say, portentous given where we are now — the fabled “double hater” bloc of voters routinely expressed their disillusionment with having to pick between the two old men who battled against each other in 2020 (and had been fighting earnestly for half a decade.)

The “foresight” in this is about seeing around the corner as they say in politics. It’s impossible to predict outcomes — but we can glean possible outcomes based on mechanics, statute, voter attitudes, culture and more. And, more importantly, try and nail down just what a future president can and would do if in office — the promises versus the reality.

And, of course, watch the actions of the candidates, always.

Thanks for reading, drop a line: tom@24sight.news