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Cheers,
Tom
1. Game Changer
The last presidential debate shook the White House race in a way rarely seen in modern politics, lifting the curtain on President Joe Biden’s frailty and starting a monthlong effort by top Democrats to push him out of the race. It also gave us what is being colloquially called the second White House race, between Vice President Kamala Harris
The Harris and Trump campaigns have agreed to a second debate, and
With the country now tuned into the race for the White House unlike before, my guess is this debate will have outsize importance in shaping the race. Keys for Harris will be watching to see if she can bait Trump into being Trump (talk of pardoning January 6th rioters, “Black jobs”, shark attacks, etc.) For Trump, it will be whether he turns on “Teleprompter Trump”, as he often does, presenting a scripted, toned down version of his campaign message. (He has been slipping quite a bit in his third race for the White House and is a lot older, but he’s also a master at stagecraft and his nonsensical answer on childcare last week feels more to me, having covered him since 2015, like a headfake than telegraphing.)
And yes, Trump will be appearing at this debate (99% likelihood, at this writing.) Same goes for Harris. A comet could always strike, thus the 1% hedge here.
(Catch me on LiveNow from Fox immediately after the debate tomorrow night for a recap and on SiriusXM Channel 124 later in the night!)
2. Polled
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shook the pundit class, again, showing Trump regaining support nationwide, leading Harris 48%-47% — and revealing a critical dynamic in the race with room to define Harris. (I discussed the define Harris dynamic with Andrew Craft Friday night on LiveNow from Fox, watch here.)
The insta-punditry inside the Washington Beltway spun it as the race shifting. (The same Trump campaign aides who derided the NYT/Siena poll weeks ago when it showed them losing, changed their tune when it showed them winning at the moment.)
But the 538 aggregation of polls, including a number of other surveys taken over the same time period as the NYT/Siena survey, shows Harris still with a lead if the election were held today.
In other words, it’s still a very tight race, and the polling still varies a great deal. Again, lending importance to Tuesday night’s debate — about 50 million people watched the Biden-Trump debate in June, almost double the number who watched the NFL opener Thursday night between the Chiefs and Ravens.
3. Ballot Battles
The closer we get to the start of early voting, the clearer it becomes that the legal battles underway in the states to determine who is allowed to vote and what is counted as a valid vote.
The Trump campaign sent a memo last week blasting what it calls the “Blue Mirage” and Trump himself threatened, again, to imprison election officials he believes have broken the law (a continuation of his attacks which fueled the January 6th insurrection). A slew of court battles are still playing out across the battleground states, which, in deciding which votes get counted and how, could easily sway the election.
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4. Talker
Big interview here of Federalist Society founder and longtime conservative juggernaut Leonard Leo from Alex Rogers in The Financial Times (subscription required.) Leo promising to spend $1 billion to combat liberal institutions. Leo, who helped craft the list of judicial appointments then-President Trump selected from in office — included the three Supreme Court justices he appointed — has a long track record of successfully pushing conservative causes.
5. Santos Spotting
Remember former Rep. George Santos? He used to dominate the headlines with his antics before being removed from the House for said antics, which now have him facing sentencing in after being convicted of embezzling campaign funds.
Santos makes a guest appearance in this wild investigation from Kadia Goba, Ellie Hall and David Weigel of Semafor into a secret network of online influencers pushed to spread sexual attacks against Harris just as she was securing support for the Democratic nomination.
Santos, Semafor reports, objected to hitting Harris with the sexual attacks.
6. Another House spending battle
The veteran Hill experts over at Punchbowl News have a solid look at efforts to avert a government shutdown. Again. As lawmakers return to Washington after their August recess. Among the battles is whether current federal funding extension should run for six months, as House Republicans led by Speaker Mike Johnson are seeking, or whether it runs for three months as House Democrats are seeking.
What’s in a three-month differential? Possible control of the House, based on the current political climate. House Republicans hold a very thin majority, at 220-211, and could easily lose that if the Harris/Walz headwinds carry through November.
Something you hear routinely in polling and anecdotally from voters outside the Beltway? General disdain for Washington for its almost complete inability to get things done. (Your author remembers a time when Biden was still a sprightly senator and lawmakers used to set the national budget through these things called appropriations bills.)
7. Golden Age
Longtime journalist Sasha Issenberg has this very cool look at the golden age of ballot-stuffing, a century ago, in Terre Haute, Indiana — (side note, this is the county seat of Vigo County, which, for 68 years, acted as a national bellwether voting with the winning candidate every four years.)
Issenberg details a 1914 judicial election in Terre Haute, and the legendary battle between machine pol Donn Roberts and suffragist Stella Stimson which ultimately ends with 115 people convicted for their efforts to steal the election.
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Cheers,
Tom
A little glitch in No. 1. But, good stuff. Thx.