The 24 Seven: Branding

The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House

Red Bull gives you wings, but Celsius runs the Hill. The competing coolers for what is, essentially the same energy drink, at the Longworth House office cafeteria. (Photo Tom LoBianco/24sight News.)

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1. “Babylon was”

The title of today’s 24 Seven is a reference to Kara Swisher’s excellent “Burn Book”, which I finally cracked open a few weeks ago. She tells of her start in reporting and how in all things the mighty eventually fall, she repeats the line “Babylon was” — (more on that and Big Tech in her PBS interview from this past spring.)

I thought of this as I picked up lunch at the Longworth House office cafeteria today looking at the respective coolers for Red Bull and Celsius. Anyone trapped on social media knows that the Hill is Celsius Country. And sure enough, the Red Bull cooler was well-stocked and the Celsius almost completely gone.

They’re the same drink, yet Celsius is the hot brand right now. It’s new. Tastes change and a decade is a long time — ask every hair metal band that crashed into grunge — even if the product itself is much the same.

In a race for the White House which saw the rise of a scion of the Kennedy dynasty as a favorite “alternative” to the Democratic and Republican offerings and the creation (and swift evaporation) of a voting bloc dubbed the “double haters” who wanted neither Trump nor Biden, Harris is new.

She’s well known to Californians and the political press, but to voters — who have spent the better part of this race checked out and are now checking back in — she’s the Celsius.

I’m not sure that Trump is an untouched cooler of Red Bull, but he’s not flying off the shelves the way he used to (more on that in item 4). The former president simply does not have the same energy he used to nine years ago when he stormed the national stage. His crowds are smaller, many people leave his speeches early. His wild comments are taken as granted (and in the case of Democrats and many independents, branded broadly as “weird”.)

This is not to say he’s not powerful and doesn’t still have a very strong shot at winning the White House. Trump has a firm lock on the vast majority of the Republican Party’s voters and the favor of the electoral map.

It’s to say, as Swisher says, “Babylon was.”

Power is as fleeting as digital tech bullhorns. Twitter ruled the roost eight years ago, now it’s TikTok and YouTube. Trump’s “return to Twitter” did not generate nearly the energy that it might have a few years ago, even if it was incredibly well-attended within that bubble.

Here are some recent Trump storylines which mirror the previous two races he’s run: he’s changing, he needs to listen to his staff, he’s firing his staff.

Harris’s initial forays have, despite a stock stump speech, lit up arenas across the country the way Trump used to eight years ago.

From the left, Doug Sosnik (H/T Playbook) writes this stunning observation — Vice President Kamala Harris’ precipitous rise has the makings of a movement in the vein of Reagan, Obama and Trump, if the trajectory continues.

It is, of course, still early, and Harris has yet to be tested as the Democratic nominee in major ways — her team has promised a major sitdown interview by the end of the month, but has taken a lot of heat for largely avoiding the press.

And, of course, we have yet to see the energy in Chicago.

2. Policy plans

The Harris campaign rolled out a plan which calls for big increases in the child tax credit, new support for homebuyers, the construction of 3 million news homes and price caps on essentials like groceries. (Some of this meshes with what the Trump/Vance ticket is pushing for, and of course Trump and his team have accused Harris of stealing their proposal to stop taxing tips.)

For Republicans especially, the state of the economy, inflation, the price of groceries is a motivating issue, along with immigration. Harris has moved aggressively to define herself on both issues as Trump and his team work just as fast to paint her out of the gate.

(Stop back in tomorrow for a detailed report on the competing economic plans — that we know of at the moment.)

Trump meanwhile announced more events to talk about the economy.

Trump hosted reporters at his New Jersey golf resort Thursday to talk more about the economy, and other things. And he announced today he’ll be campaigning at a manufacturing plant in York, PA Monday (the first day of the DNC) to talk more about the economy. Shortly before that, Trump running mate J.D. Vance is scheduled to talk about the economy a few hours’ drive away in Philadelphia.

Pennsylvania, of course, forms the cornerstone of the vast majority of “paths to victory” for Harris and Trump as we close in on Election Day.

3. NBD

The Dispatch has a good piece on the Trump campaign’s efforts to outsource it’s ground operation to Turning Point USA , now a cornerstone of the Trump Republican Party akin to the role veteran conservative organizations used to fill in GOPs past, and other outside groups.

There is some deep skepticism about this strategy for good reason, however — one-time (perceived) juggernaut Ron DeSantis tried this over a year ago, outsourcing much of his campaign to his well-funded super PAC, Never Back Down.

Washington Monthly politics editor Bill Scher noted last week on the 24sight Pod, the importance of a good ground game is often overstated — but in a tight race, as we’ve seen in swing states the past two cycles, it can be the difference between loss and victory.

Chasing that Nebraska Vote. The Bill Scher Interview. (Ep. 22)

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4. Payouts

The New York Times reports that Trump made $300,000 on his Trump Bible, at least $1 million in crypto, which he has been pushing heavily this campaign — with the help of Silicon Valley mega-donors

But the mandatory financial disclosures also show that Trump holds a $50 million liability for his bond in the New York business fraud case against his family company.

Much more in the NYT piece.

5. “Lame duck”

The conventional wisdom is always that a politician who is either termed out of office, is not seeking re-election or heading for the exits for other reasons (Sen. Bob Menendez, D/I-N.J.) is instantaneously defanged and devoid of power with that news, a “lame duck.”

But the flipside of that coin is that a politician unmoored from the eternal campaign may be more willing to speak candidly on items which previously would have gotten them in trouble.

To wit, Biden seemed to hurl a potty insult at Trump Thursday, calling him “Donald Dump.”

6. Trump trials

The next big hearing in the federal case against Trump for the January 6th insurrection is set for September 5th, not long before the first debate.

Meanwhile Trump is again trying to delay his sentencing in his New York criminal case until after the election. It is currently set for Sept. 18, delayed because of the Supreme Court’s historic ruling on “presidential immunity.”

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