The '24 Seven - 2/20/24
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House - 2/20/24
Hello, and welcome to The ‘24 Seven - a daily roundup of the top seven stories shaping the 2024 race for the White House. If you see something I missed or have suggestions, drop me a note - 24sight@substack.com.
Coming in later today, ranking the would-be Trump running mates (for paid subscribers.)
So, what *is* the state of the race?
1 The state of things
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is set to deliver a “State of the Race Speech” at noon ET today in Greenville, SC, her campaign announced yesterday evening. Livestream here.
The title certainly carries ominous vibes for her candidacy given the circumstances (she’s trailing former President Donald Trump by anywhere from 25 - 35 percentage points in her home state, depending on which polls you look at.) The primary is Saturday, and political CW carries that she may want to get out before earning the possible stain of losing in her home state.
And yet her campaign has given clear signs she’s staying in the race … they just announced their state leadership team in Vermont.
2nd mate decisions
Speaking of, what are the chances Haley is being seriously eyed for running mate with Trump? Answers this afternoon right here at 24sight. Her South Carolina nemesis Sen. Tim Scott has been riding high in the early jockeying, but Trump has a way of burning through possible running mates in what is almost guaranteed to be one of the longest-running storylines this cycle.
3 The path to ‘28
Which reminds me, there’s already plenty of jockeying underway for the Republican nomination in 2028. (The New York Times reported last on early speculation that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley are in the mix.) … too soon, you say?
Presumably, whoever wins a spot on Trump’s ticket is lined up for a good shot at the Republican nomination in 2028 — whether Trump wins the general election or not.
Reminder, this was the Pence team’s thinking when they signed on with him in 2016. … which also reminds, things with Trump rarely go as expected. Last election he whipped his diehard supporters into a historic frenzy resulting in the January 6th attack on the Capitol, where Trump supporters chanted their plans to murder Pence.
4 The march to the nomination
Playbook reports on the Trump campaign’s delegate math, which places him at securing the Republican nomination in the next three-four weeks based on expected wins in primaries across the country next month.
5 The shape of another Trump administration
Some great reporting lately on the shadow administration forming in Washington to welcome Trump back, should he win the nomination and then the general election. Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports on the expansive efforts by conservatives, led by the revamped Heritage Foundation, to recruit workers for a would-be second Trump term. And POLITICO’s Alexander Ward and Heidi Przybala report on the latest from Trump policy whisperer (and former Pence aide) Russ Vought with this eye-catching headline: Trump allies prepare to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration.
6 Global comms
X.com, owned by the second richest person in the world, briefly shut down the social media account of the widow of Russian dissident Alexie Navalny, then restored it, citing a technical error in which she was deemed to have broken the site’s rules.
7 Tops
New York Times fashion critic Vanessa Friedman pulls at the tongue of Trump’s golden sneakers to reveal the clever strategy at play, turning all things deeply serious into a circus. Read it here.