The '24 Seven - 4/30/24
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House
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1 Trump unfiltered
While he may be gagged when it comes to discussing the election tampering trial happening right now in New York, former President Donald Trump let it all fly during a pair of wide-ranging talks with Time.
The sweeping interviews, which covered everything from Trump’s take on the polarizing Israel-Hamas war to possibly banning the abortion pill mifepristone (a decision, like others he’s backburned indefinitely, that’s been pushed to two weeks out), gave the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee the chance to fill in as many blanks as possible on his nebulous second term agenda.
Having killed a bipartisan Senate border deal by pressuring congressional Republicans to deny incumbent President Joe Biden a legislative win ahead of the November elections, Trump is now leaning into planned mass deportations and law enforcement raids – floating that he’ll deploy the National Guard, state and local police forces, and even the U.S military domestically, if he sees fit – to nullify the “invasion of our country.”
“I don't think they're bold actions. I think they’re actions that are common sense,” Trump said of an anticipated immigration crackdown that would extend far beyond those crossing at the southern border.
“And I'll be doing everything on a very legal basis, just as I built the wall,” he added, plugging the unfinished “big, beautiful” fence he promised supporters in 2016.
2 Crime in decline
In addition to bashing Biden on immigration, Trump and congressional Republicans have railed against what they insist is rising crime rates ushered in by liberals’ “defund the police” policies.
A strong message in an election year.
Except that recent data from federal investigators show it’s simply not true.
USA Today reports that while there was an uptick in various crimes due to a “blip caused by pandemic disruptions,” violent attacks are trending down again.
Federal Bureau of Investigation data for 2022 demonstrates a 1.7% drop in overall crimes, and 6.7% fewer murders. Fourth quarter data for 2023 presents more dips, including a 4% decrease in property-related crimes, a 6% drop in violent crime, and a 13% drop in murders from 2022.
3 WWJD 2024?
The Bulwark did a deep-dive on a nonprofit group working to woo religious voters in several battleground states.
Faith Forward, which reportedly undertook a similar effort in 2020 and 2022, is back at this time around, promoting Biden as a more morally responsible choice than Trump.
“Thank God we chose a faithful president who doesn’t worship himself nor undermine the Constitution he swore to uphold,” the group said in a recent ad. “For such a time as this, we pray to God what is true in our hearts: Four more years.”
Faith Forward has mapped out plans to spend $1 million in targeted ads poised to spread their message through swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4 Battleground tug-of-war
New polling from Emerson College shows that Trump holds a narrow lead over Biden in several swing states.
The recent survey shows Trump ahead by 5 points in North Carolina, 4 points in Arizona, 3 points in Georgia, 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a single point in Michigan and Nevada, respectively.
But the embattled former president seems to again lack coattails, with every Senate GOP candidate in said races trailing the corresponding Democratic challenger.
Senate Democratic hopeful Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona (45%) has a 2 point lead on Trump-backed Kari Lake (43%)
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania (46%) has a 4 point lead on Trump-backed Dave McCormick (42%)
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan (42%) has a 2 point lead on Trump-backed former Rep. Mike Rogers (40%) in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin (46%) has a 3 point lead on Trump-backed Eric Hovde (43%), and,
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen (45%) has an 8 point lead on failed 2022 Senate hopeful Sam Brown (37%)
Mind you, every one of these Democratic candidates remains underwater at this point.
But the election is also six months away.
5 So long!
“Dysfunctional” (3x)
“Chaotic” (2x)
“Difficult”
“Tense”
“Broken”
These are just some of the ways a dozen retiring lawmakers described the current state of Congress to the New York Times.
Listen to the broader exit interviews for more on this particularly “challenging” time on Capitol Hill.
6 The insufferable MTG
And as a bookend to the congressional tales of woe, don’t miss House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ analysis of embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson’s saving grace: bipartisan annoyance with conservative bomb-thrower Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.
“Mike Johnson doesn’t need too many Democratic friends,” Jeffries said of possibly swooping in to save House GOP leaders from another conservative coup attempt. “She is one of the best things the speaker has going for him because so many people find her insufferable.”
7 Veepstakes hot takes
Had it with the wildly divergent predictions about who Trump might tap to help carry the MAGA mantle this fall?
Semafor has too.
The monthly rankings and ping-ponging matrices of potential vice presidential picks are just Trumpers floating personal wish lists – or as Trump watcher Shelby Talcott puts it “a map to the competing factions of the former president’s orbit.”
“99% of the people claiming they know who’s up or who’s down are either full of it or have their own agenda,” one observer told Semafor, adding, “The reality is the only thing Trump is truly focused on right now is his own trial.”