The '24 Seven
The top seven stories shaping the race for the White House - 2/13/24
Hello, and welcome to The ‘24 Seven - a daily roundup of the top seven stories shaping the race for the 2024 White House. If you see something I missed or have suggestions, drop me a note - 24sight@substack.com.
Cheers,
Tom
1 House special election - New York’s 3rd District
We should have results tonight from the special election to replace former Rep. George Santos, who was kicked out of the House of Representatives by his colleagues amid charges that he grifted his campaign donors to pay for a lavish lifestyle.
Republicans control the House by a thin margin indeed — 219 - 212 at the moment. A Republican win here would increase that margin to eight (220 - 212) and a loss would drop it to six (219 - 213). And there are more special elections throughout the calendar to fill vacant House seats, including the California seat relinquished by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
It’s hard to see this special election as a bellwether writlarge of what may come in November, instead it will shape the ability of House Republicans, under Speaker Mike Johnson, to successfully drive or block priorities. (See the failed vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary — and Jeff Bezos lookalike — Alejandro Mayorkas. And will vote to impeach Mayorkas again … more on that in a second.)
MAGA convert Mazi Pilip (R) is running against former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) for the seat.
2 The Trump court cases
Former President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to adjudicate his claims of absolute “immunity” from prosecution for any actions taken while in office. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments last month on Trump’s claims that he cannot be prosecuted for his role in the January 6th attack on the Capitol and ruled last week that a former president is indeed governed by law, including for actions taken while in office.
The Supreme Court already heard argument in another historic case, Colorado’s determination that Trump should not appear on the ballot because of the 14th Amendment’s ban against insurrectionists holding office, but seemed skeptical of Colorado’s reasoning there.
As we close in on spring, perhaps six weeks faster this year, the Republican primary wanes faster and the battleground of the general election increasingly eclipses it. And that battleground is increasingly the courtroom. Brinksmanship by Trump and his team to delay myriad cases continues — see the turn in Georgia, where prosecutor Fani Willis’ relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade, could derail that case. Trump was in court in Florida this week in the criminal case alleging he illegally took highly sensitive classified documents from the White House.
As CBS’s veteran politics correspondent Bob Costa and others have noted - this election is playing out in court.
3 Aid for Ukraine and Israel
Late Monday, the Senate approved $60 billion in aid for Ukrainians fending off the Russian invasion — now entering its second year — routed through the U.S. military. The Senate measure also includes billions in additional aid for Israel, humanitarian support for Gaza and support for Taiwan against China, according to the AP’s writeup. Johnson, in the House, has already vowed to block the measure from coming to a vote.
This comes in the context on the continually power of the nationalist-populists inside the Republican Party’s coalition. Top right influencer and former king of cable news Tucker Carlson made waves interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin and arguing that Moscow is a nicer place to live than any city in the U.S. And the de facto Republican nominee, Trump, saying he would be fine with Russia attacking any NATO country which doesn’t pay in its 2% GDP in defense spending for membership in the historic alliance.
Heading into the second anniversary of the first land war in Europe since World War II ideological battle lines domestically have hardened, even to the point where an attempted compromise by pairing hawkish aid for Ukraine and Israel with a protectionist demand to crack down on illegal border crossings was killed.
4 Immigration
The House is voting again, tonight, to try and impeach Mayorkas on allegations that he committed a high crime or misdemeanor for refusing to enforce immigration laws. Republicans will be buoyed for this second vote by the return of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who announced his cancer is in remission.
Illegal border crossings have been steadily high and show no signs of abating — and the issue remains top-of-mind for many voters, according to Gallup’s tracking survey. Much like Trump’s court cases and the economy, immigration is a staple of the 2024 election.
5 The Oldest Election
Age of candidates continues to be a top issue and, much to the chagrin of the Biden White House and campaign, and Trump (to a lesser extent). (You can catch me talking a bit about this on Fox Livenow last week after the special counsel’s report was released.)
And the candidate who tossed a wrench in the Super Bowl without ever saying “Taylor Swift"? Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a fairly spry 70-year-old scion of one of the nation’s most powerful political dynasties who spun heads with a repurposing of his uncle’s famous 1960 campaign commercial, singing in early-TV-style “We want Kennedy!”
Without getting into the repeated flubs by the two men — one current president, one former — who appear destined for a rematch of the 2020 election in November, it’s worth pulling back to consider that voters in recent years have soured quite a bit on politicians who have been in office a very long time. Variations on this concern have been around a long time — consider the push for federal term limits for lawmakers and promises, often broken, to only serve a limited number of terms. But this is now a benchmark issue in the 2024 race.
6 Trump tightens his hold on the RNC
Mechanics matter in elections. Heading into the 2016 election, the Republican National Committee built a political juggernaut of fundraising and voter outreach to atone for the failures of the GOP’s 2012 loss to Barack Obama. Trump, then a neophyte in politics, reaped the windfall which helped carry him to the White House.
On taking office, Trump anointed Mitt Romney’s niece, Ronna McDaniel, to run the party apparatus — and she survived through thick and thin, evolving into one of Trump’s regular advisers as a cast of other high-profile players came and went.
Now, eight years later, the RNC is strapped for cash — struggling under the weight of Trump’s legal bills and a drying up of small-dollar donations. Trump and his Florida braintrust pushed for Ronna to step away, and on Monday Trump announced he was tapping North Carolina GOP Chairman, and party general counsel, Michael Whatley to run the RNC through the election and dispatching daughter-in-law (and North Carolina native) Lara Trump and campaign co-chair Chris LaCivita to run financial and battleground state operations there.
McDaniel and the RNC have repeatedly stated that no decision on her future will be made until after the South Carolina Republican primary February 24.
7 Jon Stewart returns
The voice of politics for many an “old millennial” returned Monday night in peak form.