Ranking the would-be Trump running mates

Wild cards abound and questions of what happens after South Carolina

Welcome to the Veepstakes! The 24sight.news team has the goods. It’s built on interviews with more than two dozen top Republicans, current and former Trump advisers, and ‘open source intelligence’ (aka Trump interviews and pieces from top Trumpworld figures.)

The key dynamics to consider here: Does the running mate help the Trump ticket get over the line in November? Can they fulfill the duties of president if something should happen to Trump? And do they mesh with Trump? The hunger, the thirst, the desire and the rampant ambition, is built on the Constitution limiting Trump (if he wins) to only one more term in office - thereby likely placing his running mate at the front of the line for the Oval Office in 2028. (Note: This would be the normal calculation in normal times, but these are not normal times. Not by a stretch.)

It’s gonna be a long-running theme of this race, seeing as the general election has more or less started, and count on names to get shuffled aplenty. This is where things stand as of February 21, 2024.

1 Ben Carson

The quiet demeanor of former Housing and Urban Development Secretary and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, leads to some surprise when his name comes up. But his name comes up. A lot. From different corners of Trumpworld. He’s trusted by Trump and has strong ties among “movement conservatives” and the Christian Right, a key bloc of support Trump needs which used to be linked by former Vice President Mike Pence.

In Carson, Trump would have the essential ingredients for pairing with him: he doesn’t steal the spotlight, he could help woo Black voters and, above all, he’s trusted by Trump. This last point is important to consider in these rankings, the (very early) vetting is entirely different from the seat-of-their-pants efforts of 2016 — and an important metric Trump is looking for now, advisers say, is a track record of loyalty. All of which is why Carson grabs the top spot. Of course, he’s got competition …

2 Sen. Tim Scott

The lone black Republican in the US Senate had once harbored presidential ambitions, but his journey took an unexpected turn when he withdrew from the race in November, citing a lack of significant voter support. Scott is known for his teetotaling lifestyle, he’s deeply religious and doesn’t drink — the latter of which, longtime Trump friends and advisers note is very important to staying in Trump’s good graces. And he could potentially peel away Black voters from the Democratic base.

He endorsed Trump at a critical juncture shortly before the New Hampshire primary and announced his engagement. Since New Hampshire, he’s become a regular defender of Trump on-air and on the trail. And he beat back a core question of whether he would certify the results of the election as a vice president — a centerpiece of the January 6th attack and Trump’s efforts to overthrow his 2020 loss — by saying he doesn’t do hypothetical questions, and saying that a January 6th attack won’t happen again.

Scott also has deep ties to the old GOP establishment, Mitch McConnell’s world and the donor class — all groups Trump will have to unite if he wants to win a general election.

But Scott doesn’t have the deep, longstanding relationship with Trump that Carson has.

3 Kristi Noem

The South Dakota governor has been a mainstay on Trump’s shortlist for months now, due in no small part to longtime Trump adviser Corey Lewandowski helping to keep her in front of him. Noem is young, has executive experience and could help try to win women back to Trump’s side. Noem has also, repeatedly, used her home state turf — Mount Rushmore — to woo Trump, hosting events for him at the historic site and drawing up a replica of the monument with his visage on it.

Trump mentions her name every time he’s asked about running mates, one sage former Trump adviser noted.

4 Sen. J.D. Vance

The former venture capitalist, and “Resistance” figure turned friend of Trump, and dedicated nationalist populist diehard has built close relationships with Trump and Donald Trump Jr. Vance has built himself into regular ‘explainer’ of Trump’s comments in the hallways of the Capitol. Vance could also add some age balance to the ticket.

5 Rep. Elise Stefanik

The fourth-ranking member of the House Republican leadership has deep ties in Trumpworld, dating back to when she dropped her allegiance with the old party establishment and began sharply defending Trump in his first impeachment, over efforts to deny Ukraine military aid unless they investigated Hunter Biden. Since then she’s worked her way closer and closer to Trump, ousting former House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney after the January 6th attack on the Capitol and, more recently Stefanik is a young mother from a swing district in the Rust Belt and is a regular surrogate on the trail and on TV for Trump. Stefanik’s supporters in this list note that she could, potentially, help pull in suburban women voters — a key area of weakness for Trump. She would also add youth to the ticket, but lacks the classic regional consideration as Republicans are highly unlikely to win New York state and his support among hard right populists in the Rust Belt is already well ensconced.

6 Sarah Huckabee Sanders

The Arkansas governor walks in with strong credibility with Trump from her time as the White House press secretary and her performance rebutting President Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address last year. Sanders has strong ties to the Christian Right and is a young mother, however some Trumpworld figures have dinged her for waiting too long in the primary to endorse Trump — giving the impression she may have been willing to throw her support to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

7 Kari Lake

The Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona has been attempting a rebrand to appear more palatable to regular voters in Arizona and has been a regular surrogate for Trump on the campaign trail. She gets dinged in interviews for having never won office, but the former TV news anchor is telegenic and has deep ties in the MAGAverse.

8 Lee Zeldin

The former representative from Long Island has been coming up in conversation recently in part for his ability to help split the Democratic coalition on the issue of support for Israel. He’s also a longtime Trump loyalist with deep ties in the MAGAverse.

9 Katie Britt

The junior senator from Alabama is a young mother and telegenic and routinely comes up in talks of possible running mates. She also has close ties to the old party establishment and could potentially bridge the divide between Trump’s populist base and the old bulls of the Senate and the donor class.

10 Lindsey Graham

“Where’s Lindsey?” used to be a big question among Republicans wondering why the longtime South Carolina senator had disappeared from the scene. Veteran journalists Daniel Klaidman and Michael Isikoff offered a big clue when they scooped in their new book that he testified against Trump in Georgia and later hugged Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis. But that doesn’t seem to have hurt the long-running Trump ally, who has served as a bridge between the Senate and the anti-abortion movement to Trump. Sources note that Graham still travels with Trump and that the Georgia testimony does not seem to have hurt him. Graham could also potentially build support among traditional GOP national security hawks alienated by Trump’s nationalist populism.

WILDCARDS

11 Vivek Ramaswamy

Dotting the highways of New Hampshire last month were some strange

12 Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard

The former Hawaii Democrat has built a loyal following among the hard right nationalist populist wing of the GOP, and garnered running mate buzz recently after the Washington Post reported that she has been advising Trump on foreign policy and defense spending. And a number of Trump advisers speak highly of her, but also note that her history as a Democrat — she did run in the Democratic primary in 2020 — makes her a longshot for the ticket.

And yet Trump floated her on his VP “shortlist” during a Fox News town hall Tuesday night — and she got huge applause from the audience. And Trump likes playing to the audience.

13 Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis/Sen. Marco Rubio/Rep. Byron Donalds/Rep. Matt Gaetz/Rep. Anna Paulina Luna

The 12th Amendment, which mandate that electors can’t cast votes for a president and vice president from the same state makes it a high hurdle to clear for any Florida politician, even the state is home to some of the most diehard Trump loyalists and despite Trump floating certain names (DeSantis.) Any Floridian would more than likely require a change in residency from either Trump himself or the running mate, with the expectation that

NOT Nikki Haley

Trump doesn’t want her and she doesn’t want to do it.