MAGA Matures and Fractures
Ten years in to Trump's dominance of politics raise questions of what's next
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Donald Trump’s 10-year MAGA takeover of the Republican Party is over, but the debate about what it will mean, and how long the coalition will hold, is just beginning. Just as “Make America Great Again” is an echo of Ronald Reagan’s tagline, Trump would be well-served to see how important it is to win the next elections if he wants his legacy to outlast his presidency.
His brand is on the ballot in 2026 and 2028 and beyond.
Insurgencies are cohesive. To take on the establishment the insurgents need to agree on a core set of principles that challenge the party. Trump did this with his focus on immigration, economics, and war — the three legs of the MAGA “stool”, to build on a Reagan aphorism. All three were at odds with the Reagan GOP and the shift was as gradual as it was dramatic.
When I was a field operative for the Florida Republican Party in 1996, working on state House races, the Pat Buchanan wing of the party was viewed as crazy, nativist, protectionist and anti-interventionist. These proto-Tumpers knew what they believed but they didn’t have a leader who could take on the party.
As we all know, Trump was that person. His secret superpower was instantly captivating the base of the party that was shifting away from Reagan and toward Buchanan. More working classand anti-elite, and most important: sick of losing.
Do not underestimate how much good will Trump bought with his upset over Clinton. The shift in the GOP rests on winning, which is why the next two elections are not only a referendum on Trump but the entire MAGA majority within the GOP.
The Midterms
Whether or not MAGA survives Trump rests on the next cycle of elections, specifically in the House of Representatives. The Senate is likely to be held by Republicans but control of the House is on a knife’s edge. If Trump loses the midterms, he’s not only a lame duck but Democrats will likely spend the next two years building a case that the entire MAGA project is a failure.
This is why there is so much tension now in Washington among Republicans.
The One Big Beautiful Bill is broadly unpopular, but Trump and Congressional leaders are banking on getting the win and explaining it afterwards. Without passage, this Congress will have enacted very few policies of consequence beyond the ICE and DOGE rampages, largely done without legislative authority, and both with limited results.
With limited successes on immigration and government spending, this is why the strike on Iran is so important.
It’s not exactly “Wag the Dog” because Israel initiated the action on Iran’s nuclear program. But the use of bunker busters , without Congressional authorization, amounts to unilateral action by the executive branch, undermining the third pillar of Trump’s coalition, which is staunchly anti-war.
Its online avatars are screaming “No!” into the social media echo chambers. Even staunch supporters like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., are sounding off in opposition.
If the GOP does not pass the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, Trump slides back on deportations, and engagement with Iran sprawls into more than bombing nuclear sites, the Midterm Elections will be a disaster for MAGA and for Trump’s final two years, as well as his legacy moving forward.
The ‘Third Term’
George H.W. Bush’s term was viewed at the time as Reagan’s third, the one that sealed the Reagan Revolution. But remember how Bush approached it at the convention: Kinder, Gentler. Basically, Reaganism without the rough edges (despite the Willie Horton ad, of course).
What would a “third Trump term” look like? More to the point, how will MAGA view Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, if things go sour on the Trump agenda and in the Middle East? It would create an opening for someone to run a counter-insurgency, but not from the middle. It would come from the right of MAGA.
Vance and Rubio would be viewed as letting Trump down. It would open opportunities for someone else to enter the fray like populist conservative podcaster and and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who was against the United States’s attacks on Iran. The short-term calculus of MAGA primary voters would be that no one thought Trump could win so why not run someone who is “Fully MAGA” and can complete the revolution?
Moreover, if the final two years of Trump’s term are fought on defense, against an unprecedented third impeachment, who else bubbles up in MAGA-world that we haven’t yet imagined? There’s only one left.
How much does MAGA talk themselves into believing that all that they have “achieved” in the past four years can only be “saved” by Trump himself? (This is akin to what the Biden team believed in his re-election bid. It’s also the Steve Bannon scenario, and it becomes, ironically, more “real” if Trump is less successful than more successful.)
The 22nd Amendment limits the number of times a president can win office to two terms. But how much are we willing to bet that the Roberts Court doesn’t vote 5-4 in support of Trump running again?
Right now, the betting money is on J.D. Vance, but Trump is … second. As with all things Trump, one should not dismiss what we don’t see. I’m no longer dismissing it. They just need to find the path, and they have 3.5 years to figure it out.
If Trump loses the midterms, it’s far more likely that he will at least try to run and the MAGA primary electorate will try to find a way.
Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D. is the author of the book Modern Political Campaigns, president of Cohen Research Group and a 30-year veteran of the polling industry. He writes The Levelregularly for 24sight News, analyzing polling and campaign trends with a keen eye and level-headed approach.
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“Matures” as in getting older but not wiser.
Fascinating delve … but it applies logic to a man who thrives on illogic and illusion. I fear that Trump believes the only man who can continue his “dream” is Trump. Vance and Carlson—too sissified.