Conflicting signs of Republican enthusiasm in New Hampshire primary
Trump and Haley pound the snow-covered ground, but enthusiasm seems muted ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary
MANCHESTER, N.H. _ Driving through New Hampshire, there aren’t many signs there’s a big presidential primary underway. In the ground at least.
The giant 4’x8’ wooden-framed insta-billboards which lined the New Hampshire roadways ahead of the 2016 contest have not yet re-sprouted from the frozen ground in the run-up to Tuesday’s contest. Only shootlets of wire-framed lawn signs dot the on- and off-ramps to the winding highways connecting Concord, Manchester, the Seacoast and the North Country.
By most conventional wisdom the Republican race for president appears to be over, with front-runner and de facto nominee Donald Trump leading in all polling of the Granite State - leaving only the question of how much he wins by and whether the margin is small enough for U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to declare it a two-person race (again) or whether Trump says it’s all over (again).
In perhaps a contrarian move, New Hampshire’s new Secretary of State David Scanlan predicted a record 322,000 people will vote in the Republican contest Tuesday. (In 2016, Trump began his march to the Republican nomination winning more than 100,000 out of roughly 284,000 votes cast, a highly energized year indeed.)
One veteran Republican operative in New Hampshire told 24sight the New Hampshire secretary of state has a strong track record of getting the numbers right. But another campaign vet dismissed the expectation-gaming as a tourist ploy. “The secretaries of state in those states (Iowa and New Hampshire) say sh** like that to keep up interest and fill up hotels and restaurants.”
In New Hampshire, like the 2024 race writ-large, the circus is in town and the spectacles are plenty - but the enthusiasm seems to be lacking.
Vermin Supreme, at one time a novelty of performance art in politics, crashed an appearance by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rudy Giuliani, at one time known as “America’s Mayor”, now known as Trump’s former lawyer, disbarred and claiming bankruptcy after being hit with a $148 million after jurors found he defamed Georgia election workers, has been hosting his podcast from Bedford, New Hampshire.
Veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist and the former political director on Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign, Mike Biundo, told 24sight a handful of factors have created this apparent contradiction.
“It’s a combination of things — less candidates, less media, and a general feeling that Trump is the eventual nominee. Because of the anticlimactic nature of the contest you have less political tourists,” Biundo said.
The key is to not conflate energy and enthusiasm on the ground with who will show up to vote on Tuesday, he said, “The turnout in New Hampshire is a different story, it’s what we do every four years. But the people here that show up at events is such a small part of that.”
Trump continued his march to the nomination Friday, picking up an endorsement from former opponent and possible running mate Sen. Tim Scott, at a modest-sized space in Concord. Trump will attempt a larger venue, more akin to the 2016 rallies he used to host Saturday night, looking to fill the arena at Southern New Hampshire University, a space that can hold upward of 10,000 people.
Speaking at Trump’s campaign headquarters in New Hampshire, House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, who has been aggressively campaigning behind the scenes for a spot as Trump’s running mate, urged Trump enthusiasts to work the phones for him.
Introducing Stefanik, Trump’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, tempted voluntees with an offer: Three hours of calls scores VIP ticket to Trump’s Saturday night rally, the second-highest number of calls gets a red MAGA hat signed by Trump and the top caller gets a photo taken with Trump.
“We need you to make phone calls doors, we need you to knock on doors,” Leavitt said.
Haley, who is banking her campaign on a serious showing against Trump on Tuesday, has invested heavily in the old-style, retail game of politics, gladhanding at stops throughout New Hampshire with the help of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.
During a stop at Kay’s Bakery and Cafe in Hampton, Haley shook hands and chatted briefly with voters there Friday before appearing live on Fox and Friends from the cafe.
“This is New Hampshire politics at its best, we just happened to show up,” said Peggy Chidester, 70 of Hampton, N. H., who stopped in for a coffee with her friend, Cathy Lodico, 71 of Hampton, N.H. “I was leaning toward Nikki Haley before the event, seeing her here solidified my vote. So I’ll be voting for her on Tuesday.”
Halfway through the Friday morning stop, Haley hopped behind the counter and took photos with the workers. John Tinios, the cafe owner and a Haley supporter, urged everyone to buy a slice of their famous carrot cake.
“You guys hear that? They’re known for their carrot cake,” Haley said, pointing at the assembled voters and media - a roughly 1:1 mix.
“Carrot cake cupcakes,” Tinios chimed in.
Haley replied, “Ah. Ohhh, yes. They’re best.”
Yes…let’s hear it for the carrot cupcakes! 😬 Nikki Haley LOOKS good—photogenic, that is. Sounds like the primaries so far are real yawners. But why don’t I get a sense that anybody acts like they’re aware of what’s at stake in this election! One of my closest relatives is panicking—pondering what other country to move to, if Trump wins! I vote for Canada; maybe New Brunswick, or, just north of Minnesota, maybe, in Ontario….
Yes: Trump is not well. Despite Texas’s reputation, the population is getting younger & historically, voter turnout has been only 30%! Beto lost to everyone’s least favorite Senator: Ted Cruz by only 2%--Texas could surprise everyone & flip Blue--I think it will; the Q is only how soon. The GOP has ways of suppressing voting which has helped keep them in power, including rejecting mail-in ballots. Hmmm...?
Agree 100% w your assessment of a Trump reelection: “I AM your RETRIBUTION!” Extremely frightening! I don’t think he is referring to “hummus!”