Cohen: Don't call it a honeymoon
Trump breaks another norm of the old era of American politics with a lesson in tenacity
After a national election, it’s common to give the president-elect a honeymoon period where the incoming administration gets both good vibes and the benefit of the doubt. This is usually reflected in overly positive approval ratings that come down to earth at some point during the first year of the new presidency.
But what if the president isn’t new? What if that president left office in disgrace? After 10 years of running for, serving, losing, and returning to the presidency, does Trump get a honeymoon period? Like all things Trump, the answer is more complicated than it seems on the surface.
The venerable Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter doesn’t seem to think so. As she noted yesterday, a recent YouGov poll shows Trump’s favorable/unfavorable ratings tied at 49% and Gallup had it at 48% in November, his best rating since 2017. Her big question of can Trump hold it misses the larger context of how we got here.
Post-January 6 Bottom
A quick peek at the trends on RealClearPolitics shows a much more interesting story. Trump has been building his post-election honeymoon since … January 27, 2023.
What was going on during that period? The classified documents case. On January 9 photos of the bathroom boxes were everywhere and a 37-count federal indictment was unsealed. On January 17, the 15 boxes were recovered from Mar-a-Lago. Finally, on January 27, the National Archives asked all former presidents and vice presidents to “check for classified documents.”
The result was that Trump’s post-January 6th approval rating bottomed out at 37%, while his disapproval rating reached its apex of 58%, a truly terrible -21% net rating.
The Climb Back
As we all know, this wasn’t the end of Trump, but how did he get there? It began in Georgia on August 25, 2023. Trump flew to Atlanta and was booked at the Fulton County Jail on election interference charges, took a mug shot, and promptly released it on his own social media platform, and printed it on merchandise to fund his comeback.
The GOP rallied behind Trump, his mug shot a symbol of defiance. Primary opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the cases against Trump amounted to the “criminalization of politics.” Democratic reaction reinforced Trump’s message that this was political lawfare. Biden made light of it, quipping Trump was a “handsome guy, wonderful guy.” Even MSNBC called it “instantly iconic.”
His disapproval rating would never get close to 57% again.
Campaign and Honeymoon
In fact, contrary to what usually happens during a campaign for President of the United States, his approval ratings rebounded. On January 3, 2024, Trump’s net negative rating was -15%, a 25% gain since late January the previous year. On the cusp of reelection, Trump was down to -7%, a 66% improvement over the same period.
The campaign was good for Trump, particularly when matched against an out-of-gas Biden in their only debate and Vice President Kamala Harris, who was easily tagged as an out-of-touch liberal after her successful rollout as the heir apparent.
Harris opened an early lead but Trump’s net disapproval rating kept dropping. The decline was so consistent that even after Trump was shot, his net disapproval only dropped by about 2%. By Election Day, Biden’s net disapproval rating was 15%, more than double Trump’s 7%. With Harris choosing not to separate herself from Biden, it is amazing the election was so close.
The difference between Trump’s net disapproval rating on Election Day and December 1 is 2 percentage points. That’s it, that’s the honeymoon … so far. It’s not much, and it’s the continuation of a long rebound that only looks like a honeymoon because of the calendar. The data isn’t there to support it … yet.
With all of the discussion about landslides and majorities, we have hit parity, which may be the very best Trump could expect of our evenly divided politics. With all the talk about controversial appointments, and the loss of Matt Gaetz for Attorney General (no one in Washington seems to think it’s a loss), the polls keep improving.
It will take time to reestablish Trump as POTUS, and then he will be evaluated based on his performance, again. But at least until that first day back in the Oval Office, Americans are in a festive and, perhaps, forgiving mood. The election is over. We are well into the holiday season. The second Trump presidency can wait until January.
Michael Cohen, is the author of the book Modern Political Campaigns, president of Cohen Research Group and a 30-year veteran of the polling industry. He writes The Level regularly for 24sight News, analyzing polling and campaign trends with a keen eye and level-headed approach.