American Crossroads: A closer than expected Indiana governor’s race
A dispatch from veteran journalist Brian Howey with some surprising national trends from the “Crossroads of America”
By Brian A. Howey
INDIANAPOLIS - Incessant and prevailing conventional wisdom is that the presidential race is a pure toss-up, tighter than a tick. But there are tell-tales that a wave could be developing for Democrats when gauging swing state U.S. Senate races as well as emerging potential upsets in Texas, Nebraska and Florida. And, under the radar, a closer than expected Indiana gubernatorial race.
Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun has been perceived as holding a commanding position in a seat that Hoosier Republicans have held for the past 20 years. But there are signs that Democratic nominee Jennifer McCormick has what several observers describe as a "narrow" path for an upset, even in a state Donald Trump is easily expected to carry.
The Democratic Governors Association and its Republican counterpart have been pumping money into this race. The DGA contributed $450,000 earlier this month, followed by $750,000 from the RGA to Braun by Oct. 10 and another $500,000 to the Republican this past week. The DGA responded with $450,000 last week and is spending $22,000 for a new poll. On Friday, the DGA chipped in another $500,000.
Indiana Republicans have also targeted Libertarian nominee Donald Rainwater with a mailer accusing him of being a "deadbeat dad." Usually a GOP nominee ignores the Libertarian, but at Thursday's final debate, Braun took considerable incoming from McCormick and Rainwater, who described the Republican as the "ultimate insider."
While Braun has out-raised McCormick $12 million to $2 million for the cycle, he spent the lion’s share of that money to win the six-way GOP primary in May with 40% of the vote. According to State Affairs/Howey Politics analysis, in TV and digital media purchases, Braun outspent McCormick $985,813 to $747,689 during the third quarter, giving him just a $238,124 advantage there. Many observers believed Braun would have had a much bigger edge in media spending.
Find more from longtime Indiana journalist Brian Howey and his team at State Affairs Indiana.
https://pro.stateaffairs.com/in/opinion/indiana-governor-race-barnburner
https://pro.stateaffairs.com/in/Elections/final-indiana-governor-debate-2024?page_type=article
24sight News is dedicated to traditional, objective news reporting illuminating the race for the White House and the shape of American politics writ-large. As always, you can reach me at tom@24sight.news.
Cheers,
Tom